VCU chances of getting in

[ArmyVet]

My worry with VCU is what happens when Shaka leaves. Same for Butler and Stevens. Are the programs strong enough to sustain such a change? Historically teams are not.

[Edrick]

Over the last 20 years, Butler has AVERAGED more than 22 wins per year. Brad Stevens is on year #6 (not to mention he's simply not a candidate to leave)

In the 4 years preceding Brad Stevens becoming Butler's coach, Butler made two Sweet 16s and had a National Coach of the Year.

To put into context what Butler is, here is a list (you can go back further, if youd like theres much more) of where Butler topped out in the Top 25 in recent years.

06/07: Wk 12 #11
07/08: Wk 16 #8
08/09: Wk 13 #11
09/10: Final #2
10/11: Final #2
11/12: Never appeared in Top 25
12/13: Wk 14 #14 (thus far)

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For VCU, Sincce the mid-90s, VCU has made the tournament under JD Barnett, Sonny Smith, Jeff Capel, Anthony Grant, and Shaka Smart.

[whiteandblue77]

My worry with VCU is what happens when Shaka leaves. Same for Butler and Stevens. Are the programs strong enough to sustain such a change? Historically teams are not.

The Jebbies are discussing the 12th spot... not the 8th or 9th, which Butler is. The quetion lies between St. Louis and VCU. I think that St. Louis is a much better fit to round out the league with their history with Creighton and Marquette. I know this is all about b-ball but Creigthon and St. Louis soccer will be a kind of big deal for this league, and games will be attended in both locations by more than 7,000 fans... better than some of the bottom dwellers in BE7 basketball.

And over the past present and future, as well as the fact they're Jesuit, I think St. Louis > VCU for sure... I would assume Georgetown, which seems to have the most controll and influence right now, would want the Billikens over VCU in a second. Not taking anything away from the Rams, I am a huge fan and their final four run deserves a prize... and I think that prize is to be the dominant team of the A10, along with St. Joes. Those two teams both should be in, but until they do get an invite they will make the A10 strong and good competition for the new Big East.

[FlyerFan]

The issue with VCU would be that you would have one school in which the admission standards are substantially different than literally every other school in the conference. On top of that, the culture of that one school will differ dramatically from the rest of the conference. Finally, as I understand it VCU is largely a commuter school, which once again would be completely and totally different from everybody else.

There may be time for VCU and other public schools down the road, but I just don't know that it would be wise initially. When you have one school that is so dramatically different than all of the other members, it sounds like a recipe for problems and future discontent. After what the BE 7 have been through and the adjustments the added teams will have to go through, I think we want as smooth of a transition as is possible. Once the league has been formed and is stable, than you can experiment a little bit more.

[Pretzel]

Let's assume that "The New Big East" wants 12 teams with the locks being Butler, Xavier, Creighton, Dayton. The last two in are VCU and/or SLU. Which Team is the best fit for a new league trying to create the best basketball conference and make money? I'm not sure why anyone would pick SLU over VCU unless solely based on Private/Religious affiliation which they may want to avoid.

VCU-
Public
No religious ties (may be a pro for diversity sake)
33,000 enrollment (very large fan base)
NCAA appearances over the last 10 years- total: 5, best: final four, record: 7-5 (every win was an upset)
Attendance 7,693 = 100% capacity
Media Market rank 58- Less Pro/College competition in market
Geography- 6 team East/ 6 team West Divisions
Average High School GPA acceptance: 3.45

St. Louis-
Private
Catholic
13,785 enrollment
NCAA appearances over the last 10 years- total: 1, best: second round, record: 1-1
Attendance 6,191 = 58% capacity
Media Market rank 21- More Pro/College competition in market
Geography- 7 team West/ 5 team East Divisions
Average High School GPA acceptance: 3.70

[Hoya]

The issue with VCU would be that you would have one school in which the admission standards are substantially different than literally every other school in the conference .

A conference can set their own admission standards that all schools must adhere to for athletics.

[Vcuboy22]

vcu vcu vcu vcu vcu vcu vcu

[jkc_dawgs]

Besides the final four I'm not really aware od VCU's success in the last decade or so... anybody want to fill me in?

[FlyerFan]

The issue with VCU would be that you would have one school in which the admission standards are substantially different than literally every other school in the conference .

A conference can set their own admission standards that all schools must adhere to for athletics.

Are you sure about that?

More importantly, even if that is true, I am not sure that a public school like VCU would be able to agree to special conference mandated rules. They have a completely different mission and have to follow the guidelines set forth by their own state. I doubt a state legislature is going to change rules and standards just so that the school can get into a better basketball conference.

[Iceman]

TV MARKET:

There's no denying St. Louis is in a better media market than VCU. But, it's not as simple as who's market is bigger. There are three questions networks ask (and I know this from direct knowledge); (1) What is a program's TV draw in their home market? (2) What's the program's TV draw nationally? And (3), are there any cross-marketing synergies? Translation: are there any teams not in that market, but in the conference, that will boost interest and viewership. This is why the Big Ten targeted Maryland. It wasn't that Maryland was a great program, or that they dominated the Maryland/DC DMAs (TV markets)..........it's that there are a lot of Big Ten grads in Baltimore/DC. And, the combined synergy of Maryland being in the Big Ten, coupled with a strong conference alumni base, meant they were likely to get the basic tier carriage they're wanting for the Big Ten Network. If attendance is any indication, St. Louis & VCU probably have the same level of local draw (question #1). However, it would reason that there are more BE7/Butler/Xavier/Creighton fans in St. Louis than there are in Richmond. Thus, to a network, St. Louis would be more valuable.

It should be noted though, according to published reports, the FOX offer is for $500M for 12 years with the requirement that the BE7 add 5 teams. So, it's possible that $500M doesn't change regardless of whether VCU or SLU is the 12th team. If that's the case, then the media market is moot.

Advantage: St. Louis, strong if it changes the size of the TV contract, n/a if it doesn't

NCAA UNITS:

Fans often get so focused on the value of a conference's TV contract, they forget that TV isn't necessarily the #1 revenue stream for a conference. Case in point (as an example of how much tourney appearances are worth), this year, the 10-team Big XII will take home more than $30M in NCAA tournament revenue (assuming a decent tourney showing). The purported FOX TV deal is worth $41.7M/yr for the entire 12-team New Big East. For a conference to thrive, they need not just for teams to make the tournament, but to advance. It might shock you to learn this, but the Big XII has been the highest paid (per member) conference the last 3 NCAA tournaments, and likely will be for at least another 2-3 (b/c their lead is so great over #2). Why are they so highly paid? B/c the teams you never think of when you think of basketball have made countless deep runs. There are very few 1st round flameouts in the Big XII. 8 of the 10 members have made at least one Elite Eight the last 10 years, 7 of them have made multiple E8s or better, and 5 have made at least one Final Four (and WVU's units aren't even counted, as they belong to the BE).

Also, it's all well and good to look at how often a team makes the tournament, but really, it's a worthless stat, b/c if you're in a bad enough conference, anybody can make the tournament. That's why (as an example), Creighton's 7 tournament appearances the last 12 years really isn't all that impressive, when measured against only twice making it to the 2nd round, and never making it to the S16 or beyond. Would they have made the tournament those 7 years as a BE member? No, not even close. So, you have to look beyond appearances, and focus on times making it to the 2nd round or further, b/c (a) it'll be a lot harder to run the gauntlet in this new conference, and (b) you're not helping the conference with 1st round flameouts. This is also how Gonzaga morphed from a relatively unknown cinderella team, to a true "name" basketball program. Before 1999, they had one NCAA tournament appearance in school history. But, staring in '99, they've made 14 straight tournaments. 11 of those 14 years they made it past the 1st round, and 5 of them they made it to the Sweet Sixteen or later. So, a program with a great coach who can consistently get past the first round, and works in a few deep runs here and there, can literally transform their program from an unknown to a major basketball program. This is where VCU has the edge. Also, if VCU has another 2nd round or better tournament run this year, especially if they make it to the S16 or better, you're going to see their perception change in the basketball world. The same is true of Butler. And, if either's coach decides he wants to be the face of a reborn program, ala Mark Few, you're going to have a rising star program on your hands. That's how programs become known as "basketball schools". They pull upsets and make regular runs past the 2nd round.

In the last 12 years (two full NCAA units cycles), this is how many 2nd round or better appearances the BE7 and the candidates for membership have accrued:

8 - Xavier
6 - Marquette
5 - Butler, Villanova, Georgetown
3 - VCU
2 - Creighton, Seton Hall, Davidson
1 - St. Louis, Dayton, Richmond, St. John's, DePaul
0 - Providence

Sweet 16 or Better

5 - Xavier
4 - Butler, Villanova
3 - Marquette, Georgetown
1 - VCU, Richmond, Davison, Seton Hall,
0 - St. Louis, Creighton, Dayton, St. John's, DePaul, Providence

Just looking at the numbers, it's clear VCU has been a better tournament team by a landslide over St. Louis. In fact, VCU has more tournament units in the last six years (10) than St. Louis does in the last twenty years (8). They're a program moving in the right direction. Also, they've done all of that damage while being in a lesser conference than St. Louis (CAA vs A10). The better the conference, the better the opportunity for recruiting. It should stand to reason, if they're in a prestigious basketball conference, they're going to be able to go after much better players than they've been going after. The same is true of St. Louis, but the A10 has had plenty of acclaim, especially in the midwest. And, that conference is only sitting behind the Big Ten in the region. The CAA sits behind the ACC, Big East, and A10 in the east coast.

Advantage: VCU, strong

SCHOOL CULTURAL FIT:

St. Louis is a private, Catholic University. The New Big East is going to be 11/12ths or 5/6th private, Catholic Universities. VCU is a public university. So, without question, St. Louis is the better fit.

Advantage: St. Louis, strong

BASKETBALL CULTURAL FIT:

Though St. Louis has some history in basketball, it largely occurred in the 1950s, and was brief at that. Though VCU and St. Louis play before similar crowd sizes, VCU has been selling out their stadium for year. The only reason they haven't expanded or replaced their current facility is money............something they'd be able to move towards doing in a higher-dollar conference, especially one that generates excitement amongst their sizable donor base. If I close my eyes and try to envision which school will be more successful in the New Big East, I'd put VCU ahead of every expansion candidate but Xavier, and in line with Butler. If they can get into a larger stadium, they'll rake in considerably more $$$, which will go towards further improving their program. I don't see St. Louis having the fan base necessary to be a major player in the NBE. The playing field isn't necessarily even, just b/c everyone gets the same cut of the tournament and TV pies. Ticket sales are a huge revenue boon for programs. The citywide interest isn't there for the Billikens, and their alumni base isn't large enough to energize. VCU's alumni base is 5-6x larger. They have more opportunities to grow their fan base. Overall, I'd give VCU a slight edge in basketball culture department. IMO, they're another Providence.

Advantage: VCU, slight

MISCELLANEOUS:

One thing adding VCU (or even Richmond) would do for the NBE is provide balance. It's expected that Xavier, Butler, and Creighton will be 3 of the 5 selections. With two BE7 teams already in the midwest, and 5 BE7 teams in the E/NE, adding one east coast program would create geographic and divisional balance. Also, despite incorrect assertions to the contrary, Georgetown is not opposed to another east coast team being added, even in Virginia. They recruit VA, along with NC, DC, and MD heavily. Adding VCU gives them another game to get local players, especially those in the Tidewater area, where they recruit the military & prep academies extensively. Let's be honest, whether they are or aren't, Georgetown doesn't view VCU as a threat in the least. They're not a heated rival (ala Nova & St. Joe's), and they don't have the name cachet to steal 4-star and 5-star recruits.

If I had to rank the candidates: (#8) Xavier, (#9) Butler, (#10) VCU, (#11) Creighton, (#12) Dayton, (#13) Richmond, (#14) St. Louis.