OT: AAC Fans Beyond Delusional

[ChelseaFriar]

Just a few comments on the BE and AAC .
Contract and income for this year:
BE = Fox - 40mm per year plus NCAA bb amount of 5x$250.00 or $41.25 mm total

AAC = ESPN - 22mm per year plus 17.4 mm from new BCS agreement plus 17 mm for being in access bowl. Bb amount of 11x$250 or $59.15 mm total

The AAC amount will remain the same next year except that the AAC may not get into the access bowl which would mean about $17 mm less or $42.15 mm. I frankly do not see the AAC chance of getting into the access bowl as being much over 50% without Louisville however no one really can predict this.

In other words the disparity between the two conferences is not great in cash however it is great in viewership. I know I have written about this issue before on this site but I will say again the biggest problem we face in the BE is VIEWERSHIP not money. Our success or lack of same will be due to viewership not cash. We can prosper and become truly major or decline into near nothingness based on viewership alone. Does anyone really think the glory days of the old BE were based on our attendance? It was based on viewership with ESPN when everyone knew how great the BE was. My primary allegiance is to XU but I also have a MA from Cincinnati and I remember well the years of 9 to 11 bids for the BE. Cincinnati did not outdraw XU in attendance actually the opposite was true and X usually got a NCAA bid (actually more often than UC) but people watched the BE on TV. We need to recreate that situation and do so asap.

Well, the BE was great then. Right now it's not. If it becomes great again, people will find Fox Sports. People tuned in to the BE in the early days because of Ewing, Mullin, etc. and because of 3 teams in the Final 4.

[Bill Marsh]

Just a few comments on the BE and AAC .
Contract and income for this year:
BE = Fox - 40mm per year plus NCAA bb amount of 5x$250.00 or $41.25 mm total

AAC = ESPN - 22mm per year plus 17.4 mm from new BCS agreement plus 17 mm for being in access bowl. Bb amount of 11x$250 or $59.15 mm total

The AAC amount will remain the same next year except that the AAC may not get into the access bowl which would mean about $17 mm less or $42.15 mm. I frankly do not see the AAC chance of getting into the access bowl as being much over 50% without Louisville however no one really can predict this.

In other words the disparity between the two conferences is not great in cash however it is great in viewership. I know I have written about this issue before on this site but I will say again the biggest problem we face in the BE is VIEWERSHIP not money. Our success or lack of same will be due to viewership not cash. We can prosper and become truly major or decline into near nothingness based on viewership alone. Does anyone really think the glory days of the old BE were based on our attendance? It was based on viewership with ESPN when everyone knew how great the BE was. My primary allegiance is to XU but I also have a MA from Cincinnati and I remember well the years of 9 to 11 bids for the BE. Cincinnati did not outdraw XU in attendance actually the opposite was true and X usually got a NCAA bid (actually more often than UC) but people watched the BE on TV. We need to recreate that situation and do so asap.

My understanding is different than yours. Maybe I'm wrong, so correct me where I'm not getting it right.

This year, AAC = 22 (ESPN) + 23 (BCS) + bb 11 x 250 = 48

However, that is gross revenue. Before the BCS money is distributed within the conference, expenses are deducted. Going to a bowl is very expensive, so the amount that's ultimately distributed will be less than 23. Let's assume that it will be 20, reducing conference money further to 45.

Comparing that to the Big East, it would seem that conference revenue is in fact comparable at 4+ million per school. However that is gross revenue. Both conferences have basketball programs, so expenses are comparable. But only the AAC has football, which is extremely expensive to run, starting with 85 scholarships, moving to coaches salaries, facilities, operating costs. There is no way that the bottom line per school is anywhere comparable after costs are deducted from revenue.

Starting next year it gets worse as BCS income drops to 17 million. Yes, IF the AAC gets an access bowl, that's another 17, but my understanding is that the additional 17 doesn't stay with the conference but goes into the pool for all G5 conferences, which means only an additional 3.4 to the conference. Starting next year, the AAC money will be distributed 11 ways instead of 10, and starting the following year when Navy joins, it will be distributed 12 ways. So, with revenue decreasing and membership increasing, the AAC member schools will take quite a hit.

I may have gotten this all wrong, so correct me if I have.

I don't disagree anything you've said about exposure. But I will say that Fox is serious about growing this network. To judge their future success on the first 8 months of the network's existence is likely misleading. The Big East made a decision to go into partnership with Fox. It remains to be seen how astute that decision was.

[Bill Marsh]

Also- let's look at all the AAC teams outside the 3 you say....
Houston- made bowl game
SMU- made final of NIT as 1st team left out of NCAA tourney
Memphis- made NCAA tourney

Temple, USF had rough seasons.

now the incoming teams:
ECU- made bowl game
Tulane- made bowl game
Tulsa- made NCAA tourney

so of the 11 teams in next year 8 made a bowl or NCAA tourney. PLUS SMU who will be a top 10 team likely next year. That's not just a 2 or 3 team conference.

Half of the FBS makes a bowl game. You can have a losing record and make a bowl game (it's happened twice recently), and since when has the NIT been an accomplishment? Being the first team left out is still being left out.

ok, well what about being a lock to be a preseason top 15 team and ahead of any Big East team.

In the "way too early" preseason rankings, CBS Sports and Yahoo both have Villanova at #12 and SMU at 13 and 14 respectively. SB Nation has Villanova at 11 and SMU at 12. So much for your theory.

All of the speculative rankings aside, the difference between Villanova comes down to the fact that the 4 returning starters at Villanova have actually won something -the Big East regular season championship - while the 4 returning starters at SMU have yet to win anything. Despite all of the attention that SMU is getting for bringing in 5 star recruit Mudlay next season, he's all they're bringing in. If anything happens to him, their whole freshman recruiting class is gone. In contrast, Villanova is bringing in two 4 star recruits. They're a little further down the list, but still quality players who add to the depth without putting all the eggs in one basket.

[robinreed]

Just a few comments on the BE and AAC .
Contract and income for this year:
BE = Fox - 40mm per year plus NCAA bb amount of 5x$250.00 or $41.25 mm total

AAC = ESPN - 22mm per year plus 17.4 mm from new BCS agreement plus 17 mm for being in access bowl. Bb amount of 11x$250 or $59.15 mm total

The AAC amount will remain the same next year except that the AAC may not get into the access bowl which would mean about $17 mm less or $42.15 mm. I frankly do not see the AAC chance of getting into the access bowl as being much over 50% without Louisville however no one really can predict this.

In other words the disparity between the two conferences is not great in cash however it is great in viewership. I know I have written about this issue before on this site but I will say again the biggest problem we face in the BE is VIEWERSHIP not money. Our success or lack of same will be due to viewership not cash. We can prosper and become truly major or decline into near nothingness based on viewership alone. Does anyone really think the glory days of the old BE were based on our attendance? It was based on viewership with ESPN when everyone knew how great the BE was. My primary allegiance is to XU but I also have a MA from Cincinnati and I remember well the years of 9 to 11 bids for the BE. Cincinnati did not outdraw XU in attendance actually the opposite was true and X usually got a NCAA bid (actually more often than UC) but people watched the BE on TV. We need to recreate that situation and do so asap.

My understanding is different than yours. Maybe I'm wrong, so correct me where I'm not getting it right.

This year, AAC = 22 (ESPN) + 23 (BCS) + bb 11 x 250 = 48

However, that is gross revenue. Before the BCS money is distributed within the conference, expenses are deducted. Going to a bowl is. Rey expensive, so the amount that's ultimately distributed will be less than 23. Let's assume that it will be 20, reducing conference money further to 45.

Comparing that to the Big East, it would seem that conference revenue is in fact comparable at 4+ million per school. However that is gross revenue. Both conferences have basketball programs, so expenses are comparable. But only the AAC has football, which is extremely expensive to run, starting with 85 scholarships, moving to coaches salaries, facilities, operating costs. There is no way that the bottom line per school is anywhere comparable after costs are deducted from revenue.

Starting next hear it gets worse as BCS income drops to 17 million. Yes, IF the AAC gets an access bowl, that's another 17, but my understanding is that the additional 17 doesn't stay with the conference but goes into the pool for all G5 conferences, which means only an additional 3.4 to the conference. Starting next year, the AAC money will be distributed 11 ways instead of 10, and starting the following year when Navy joins, it will be distributed 12 ways. So, with revenue decreasing and membership increasing, the AAC member schools will take quite a hit.

I may have gotten this all wrong, so correct me if I have.

I don't disagree anything you've said about exposure. But I will say that Fox is serious about growing this network. To judge their future success on the first 8 months of the network's existence is likely misleading. The Big East made a decision to go into partnership with Fox. It remains to be seen how astute that decision was.

Bill,
My understanding on the additional 17 mm is not the same as yours. As I remember an article on the internet late last fall stated the money would go to the conference that was represented by the bowl bid team. How that conference would divide that amount among it's members would be up to the conference. I do agree however that the money will be divided 11 or 12 ways depending on membership. I also agree that the cost of football is at least 6 or 7 times more than a basketball program. Indeed when stipends are the rule I expect the gap to be higher still. My post did not concern expenses only amounts earned. However I agree that the cost of football is far greater and I was not implying that AAC schools will be able to spend as much per capita on basketball or any other sport as the BE. Lastly I sincerely hope your appraisal of Fox's commitment to the FSN is true. In the final analysis viewership is more important than almost anything else. I do not believe it should be so but I know it is.

[SJHooper]

The Big East is already a much better basketball conference built for the long-term not just a few year run like the AAC renting L'Ville for a year, getting a few good years out of SMU with geezer Larry Brown, and a championship by UConn who will bolt for either the Big East, Big Ten, or ACC at some point.

The Big East may be struggling now, but it's just a down period. We lost a battle but we will ultimately win the war. Look at the names and the histories of the schools in each conference. It's not even close. ECU, Tulane, and Tulsa is like scraping the side of a new Lamborghini. UConn, Cincy, and Memphis are nice shiny programs, but ECU, Tulsa, Tulane, Houston, SMU (after Brown), etc. will bring them down.

I really think UConn comes to its senses. After winning ANOTHER championship in hoops (well actually 2 more), I think it made them realize what they really were: a hoops powerhouse. It's like Jordan leaving basketball to play baseball. Why? That's not your sport. Your best talents are clearly in hoops. Stick to it.

The AAC is Conference USA with a few major basketball powerhouses who don't belong.

[Bill Marsh]

The real issue for UConn is Olympic sports. It's one thingfor the basketball and football programs to fly all over the country; that's what they signed on for. But when kids in non-revenue sports have to routinely travel up to 1800 miles for competition against other members of their own conference, that's a killer - especially when there are loads of schools to compete against just a bus ride away.

West Virginia has been screaming bloody murder about precisely this problemever since they joined the Big XII. But at least the mountaineers are getting a $20 million pay check to compensate them for their troubles. UConn is getting 10% of that from the AAC's TV deal. UConn will hang in there for now while they collect money from entrance and exit fees + NCAA tournament credits from their run this year and Louisville's last year + their last BCS check from this year's bowl game. They just hired a big time coach, so they'll give him a shot.

But this stuff will very quickly get old. With Rutgers and Louisville in the conference, travel was not as bad as it will become. The AAC showed just how much they care about UConn's problem when they decided to replace Rutgers with Tulsa instead of UMass, 50 miles away vs 1500.

If West Virginia is complaining about road trips to Texas, imagine how the folks at UConn feel about this, 500 miles east of Morgantown. It's nice to have Temple in the conference just 233 miles away. When Navy joins, they will be for football only, so they will be of no help for Olympic sports. In fact their addition hurts because it keeps the conference at 11 members for all sports, preventing them from breaking into divisions, which could have helped with travel.

Here's how the rest of the conference after Temple matches up with West Virginia's travel miles in the Big XII:

WEST VIRGINIA - UCONN

Iowa St - 861 - 637 - East Carolina
Kansas - 900 -- 795 - Cincinnati
K State - 981 - 1210 - Central Florida
OK ST - 1083 - 1232 - Memphis
OU -----1137 - 1259 - South Florida
TCU --- 1239 - 1446 - Tulane
Baylor - 1298 - 1495 - Tulsa
Texas -- 1399 - 1691 - SMU
TX Tch -1467 - 1770 - Houston

[stever20]

You can't just dismiss Temple though. The fact is UConn does travel to Temple.

this year football-
Uconn plays at USF 1259
Tulane 1446
ECU 637
Memphis 1232
avg distance 1143.5 miles

home games-
Temple 230
UCF 1210
Cincy 795
SMU 1691
avg distance 981.5 miles

wvu:
away
Texas Tech 1467
Okla St 1083
Texas 1399
Iowa St 861
avg distance 1202.50

home
Oklahoma 1137
Kansas 900
Baylor 1298
TCU 1239
Kansas St 981
avg distance 1111

Also, next year, when Navy joins, that's going to give UConn another close team. 352 miles. So UConn would have 4 opponents that are closer than ANY Big 12 opponent for WVU. They'll probably always play 2 of those away each year. Probably Temple/Cincy one year, ECU/Navy the other year. Then 2 longer trips.

Generally speaking, conferences don't split up for Olympic sports into divisions. Also wouldn't be shocked if you see a VCU brought in for Olympic sports- and that would help out a lot as well. UConn won't be traveling to all of the far away spots every year in basketball.

A lot of WVU's problems were they aren't doing anything like travel partners or the like for the sports. So they'd have to go to Texas Saturday, home for a Wed game, and then on the road for the following Saturday. AAC showed they'll be smarter- I know Uconn for instance played at Houston on Tuesday and SMU on Saturday. Maybe shorten that up a smidge even(I know it was NYE).

going to be a long time before the NCAA tourney money dries up. I mean, UConn's run this year will be paying them until the 2020 season. Louisville's title run thru 2019 and even this year's credits thru 2020. And, you're assuming ESPN doesn't lock up the AAC longer term, with a pay increase. You can bet that ESPN will make it where if expansion around doesn't occur that they get the AAC more money to keep UConn from looking at the Big East.

The thing right now- the difference in basketball between the AAC and the Big East is not enough to compensate for the difference in football between the AAC and whatever they would do. No one in their right mind would think that. UConn isn't going to TNT football and make it where they could NEVER move into the Big Ten or ACC. That's what would happen if they did that.

[theNEWbigeast]

Is this for real? I had no idea East Carolina fans had the power to get under the skin of people so much. Let it go. Talk about things that you shouldn't let bother you!!! East Carolina fans have you all riled up??? Pick your battles, dude.

In related news, some Canisius fans over on their message board are saying the Big East was a bit overrated. Oh, and there were two loudmouth Samford fans claiming that the conference is going nowhere but down. And Houston Baptist better get off its high horse. Quick, NJRedmen, get over to each of those message boards and defend the honor of Big East basketball against irrelevant fan bases.

Spend some of that "down time" planting a tree, or writing a poem, or punching yourself in the groin -- all of which are much more productive than waging war against four East Carolina fans.

Too funny...

[ECU]

Is this for real? I had no idea East Carolina fans had the power to get under the skin of people so much. Let it go. Talk about things that you shouldn't let bother you!!! East Carolina fans have you all riled up??? Pick your battles, dude.

Spend some of that "down time" planting a tree, or writing a poem, or punching yourself in the groin -- all of which are much more productive than waging war against four East Carolina fans.

Too funny...

I'm not sure who you are a fan of but ECU's averaged 45k-50k for a season in the big boy sport that drives college athletics. That's 40th-45th national in attendance in the biggest drawing sport since our last expansion. You might want to educate yourself about our 4 person fanbase or this other sport called football that the big dog sport that runs college athletics. You guys act like it doesn't even exist.

[Bill Marsh]

You can't just dismiss Temple though. The fact is UConn does travel to Temple.

this year football-
Uconn plays at USF 1259
Tulane 1446
ECU 637
Memphis 1232
avg distance 1143.5 miles

home games-
Temple 230
UCF 1210
Cincy 795
SMU 1691
avg distance 981.5 miles

wvu:
away
Texas Tech 1467
Okla St 1083
Texas 1399
Iowa St 861
avg distance 1202.50

home
Oklahoma 1137
Kansas 900
Baylor 1298
TCU 1239
Kansas St 981
avg distance 1111

Also, next year, when Navy joins, that's going to give UConn another close team. 352 miles. So UConn would have 4 opponents that are closer than ANY Big 12 opponent for WVU. They'll probably always play 2 of those away each year. Probably Temple/Cincy one year, ECU/Navy the other year. Then 2 longer trips.

Generally speaking, conferences don't split up for Olympic sports into divisions. Also wouldn't be shocked if you see a VCU brought in for Olympic sports- and that would help out a lot as well. UConn won't be traveling to all of the far away spots every year in basketball.

A lot of WVU's problems were they aren't doing anything like travel partners or the like for the sports. So they'd have to go to Texas Saturday, home for a Wed game, and then on the road for the following Saturday. AAC showed they'll be smarter- I know Uconn for instance played at Houston on Tuesday and SMU on Saturday. Maybe shorten that up a smidge even(I know it was NYE).

going to be a long time before the NCAA tourney money dries up. I mean, UConn's run this year will be paying them until the 2020 season. Louisville's title run thru 2019 and even this year's credits thru 2020. And, you're assuming ESPN doesn't lock up the AAC longer term, with a pay increase. You can bet that ESPN will make it where if expansion around doesn't occur that they get the AAC more money to keep UConn from looking at the Big East.

The thing right now- the difference in basketball between the AAC and the Big East is not enough to compensate for the difference in football between the AAC and whatever they would do. No one in their right mind would think that. UConn isn't going to TNT football and make it where they could NEVER move into the Big Ten or ACC. That's what would happen if they did that.

Steve, I'm sorry that you wasted your time posting distances to road football games. My post had nothing to do with football games. It's about travel for non- revenue sports. West Virginia has already told us how problematic that is. They'll put up with it for 10 times the TV money that UConn is getting + an AQ BCS spot & the guaranteed money that goes with that. But without that kind of compensation, the problem looms increasingly large for any Athletic dept which finds itself in that situation.

Navy is irrelevant because they are football-only and, once again, this isn't a football problem. So, you wasted your time expounding on that.

VCU would be of great benefit, and I'verecommended it any number of times for that very reason. But in this thread I'm commenting on the AAC as it is currently structured. There are a lot of things they COULD do, but so far, there are no indications that they WILL. As you yourself have pointed out in the past, even if the AAC is interested in VCU, what's in it for VCU? Given the TV dollars the AAC currently has to work with and the decline in competition with the loss of Louisville, the A10 appears to be a more attractive option, a regional conference without the travel headaches & expenses that accompany AAC membership.

I didn't assume anything about ESPN. I don't know why you're saying I did. And I agree that UConn will hang around for a few years until the money runs out. That's just what I said. They can put up with the problems short term, hoping for an invitation to the B1G or the ACC, but long term the logistics, expenses, and impact on students make this arrangement unsustainable. As for ESPN, I see absolutely no reason to be optimistic. The 11 all sports members going forward include 6 of the original CUSA all sports members with UConn replacing Louisville as the Big Dog. except for Temple, all of the others played in CUSA at one point or another. CUSA never commanded a competitive TV contract from ESPN or anyone else, so I don't see why this version of it will. It's not an issue of whether the conference has any headliners. They do, just as they did before. It's that the level of competition is horrible. No one tunes in to see a headliner play a awful team. That's the problem that this conference has and it's not fixable.

Your comment on options pinpoints the problem for UConn. This is an unsustainable situation and there are no better options. That's why they'll stay the course for now. But long term, they either move up or they reassess.