Report - Initial 10 Team League? Creighton or Richmond?

[xu5595]

I honestly believe that if the Creighton/Richmond debate is really going on, that it would be for the 12th spot, not the 10th. That has more to do with my belief that this will a 12 team league than anything else. If Fox and the C7 have a tentative deal in place, and Fox reportedly wants 12, it would stand to reason that the tentative deal is for a 12 team league.

[BillEsq]

I agree X... there is just to much money on the table to justify a ten team league over a 12... the aesthetic benefits of a round robin will not compete with the $. More teams = more TV revenue, more exposure, and more potential NCAA units...

[Edrick]

No, that's not the case.

If teams 11 and 12 do not scale, the per team take for every one of those things is less.

The denominator is likely just as important as the numerator for the marginal adds

[xu5595]

No, that's not the case.

If teams 11 and 12 do not scale, the per team take for every one of those things is less.

The denominator is likely just as important as the numerator for the marginal adds

If Fox really wants 12 teams, they are going to scale it in a way that makes it more valuable per team to have 12 teams as opposed to having 10.

[BillEsq]

No, that's not the case.

If teams 11 and 12 do not scale, the per team take for every one of those things is less.

The denominator is likely just as important as the numerator for the marginal adds

based on numbers out there
400,000,000 for 12 and 300,000,000 for ten that is come to a 277,777 /year bonus for having 12 teams.

To make that up in units the 10 team league would need to earn 23 credits every year over a 6 year period. Thats four final four teams a year plus at least one more team to earn two units. thats 23 credits just to break even from the guaranteed money they would be giving up for not going to 12 teams. Not to mention one could easily argue 12 teams have more chances to earn credits than 10 teams.

Really there is no financial reason for 10 teams.

[Moliva]

based on numbers out there
400,000,000 for 12 and 300,000,000 for ten that is come to a 277,777 /year bonus for having 12 teams.

To make that up in units the 10 team league would need to earn 23 credits every year over a 6 year period. Thats four final four teams a year plus at least one more team to earn two units. thats 23 credits just to break even from the guaranteed money they would be giving up for not going to 12 teams. Not to mention one could easily argue 12 teams have more chances to earn credits than 10 teams.

Really there is no financial reason for 10 teams.

I agree with all this. So can the schools sell $277,777 more in tickets in a 'round robin', 10 team format? I really doubt it.

[BillEsq]

When you take the money reasons and the need to fill out your Olympic sports leagues, 12 teams is really the only option. logic and common sense says 12 not 10, then again no one says this realignment process has been guided by logic and common sense.

[Edrick]

Again, the money (especially tournament distribution per team) is probably better for the member teams at 10. The Olympic sports? Their relevance to this is what youd expect it to be.

Teams 11 and 12 are teams 11 and 12 for a reason. They are going to be consuming NCAA Tournament credit revenue more than they are going to be contributing to it.

[SixTwentySix]

It's possible that they don't want to rush things. They might want to start with 10 just to keep their options open. Hypothetically if the ACC really starts to fold in the next 2-3 months, who knows what teams might become a possibility. Would be a shame to make the 12th team Dayton only to find out later on that Notre Dame wants in. There's a lot of things that need to be taken care of in regards to the new league. The number of teams is one thing they can actually slow roll, so why not do it?

[xu5595]

Again, the money (especially tournament distribution per team) is probably better for the member teams at 10. The Olympic sports? Their relevance to this is what youd expect it to be.

Teams 11 and 12 are teams 11 and 12 for a reason. They are going to be consuming NCAA Tournament credit revenue more than they are going to be contributing to it.

If the estimates from Fox are even remotely close to being accurate, there’s really no chance for the money to be better at 10.

For starters, this conference won’t have any tournament revenue to distribute whenever it begins play so you are already going to be behind. When it does, with an even distribution that gives no weight to who earned the units, it would take $16.5MM/year in tournament revenue distribution for it to be $275K more beneficial with 10 teams as opposed to 12. Double that if you do a 50-50 split, and if follow the A10 model at 75-25, it goes up to $66MM. For comparison, the Big East is slated to receive $28.3MM this year. You’re not going to make up the difference in tournament money, and that’s assuming that teams 11 and 12 add absolutely nothing.

There’s also the possibility that C7 could decide that each of the new schools would get the average for 10 teams at $2.5MM/yr regardless if they decide to go 10 or 12. If you go to 12, the additional ~$275K per school could then be redistributed to the C7 as some kind of “founders” fee. That would put the C7 close to $3MM/yr figure and it’s nowhere as drastically uneven as was reported early on.