Bubble Watch 3/15/24

[Hall2012]

Hall's NET ranking is really the only reason they're close to the bubble right now. They're well above the teams around them in pretty much every other category.

I also don't really understand the idea that St. John's jumped them last night (other than going exclusively by NET, in which case SJU was already way ahead). SHU still has 2/3 h2h, better overall wins and not as bad losses. If SJU beats UConn tonight, then it'll be fair to talk about them possibly jumping SHU.

[kayako]

Bracketville is ranked #77 / 174 on Bracket Matrix so they're slightly above average. The general consensus should have the Johnnies as one of the last couple Bye seeds once BM updates which hopefully will be more accurate.

BM should be the standard if it wasn't inexplicably outdated literally the entire season. Even today it's got brackets submitted Wednesday.

[stever20]

Bracketville is ranked #77 / 174 on Bracket Matrix so they're slightly above average. The general consensus should have the Johnnies as one of the last couple Bye seeds once BM updates which hopefully will be more accurate.

BM should be the standard if it wasn't inexplicably outdated literally the entire season. Even today it's got brackets submitted Wednesday.

which feels an eternity ago.

[stever20]

Purdue with a big injury to point guard Braden Smith and Michigan St only down 5 with 12 to go.

[kayako]

Purdue with a big injury to point guard Braden Smith and Michigan St only down 5 with 12 to go.

Apparently he returned quickly. Honestly, the team you really want to avoid is UConn, then I'd say Purdue and Houston in the next tier. If I can avoid those 3 until elite 8 or later, I'm not too stressing about where my team gets seeded this year.

[EMT]

T-Ranketology

Bart Torvik has us LAST FOUR IN and ahead of Seton Hall as last team in.

I've been following him all year. Last week we were 10-15 teams out.

My prediction is that the committee is going to say that NET was not a huge factor in the bubble, it was GOOD WINS vs BAD LOSSES. Too many articles about teams gaming the system by blowing away bad teams. NCAA is all about $$$ but pretends to be about competition and fairness. It probably doesn't sit well with Charlie Baker that you can massively improve your NET by blowing out bad teams. (HI BIG12 & SEC)

Here are some NET stats:

38 teams ahead of us with fewer Q1 wins. 29 teams with a Q3 or Q4 loss.

PC #57 - Q1: 6-8 Q2: 3-4 Q3: 1-0 Q4: 11-0

Auburn #6 - Q1: 1-7
Bama #8 - Q1: 3-8
Duke #10 - Q1: 5-4
St Mary's #15 - Q1: 5-3 Q3: 5-2 Q4: 12-0!!!!
Indiana St #28 Q1: 1-4 Q4: 12-1!!!
Princeton #49 - Q1: 0-0 Q2: 2-3
James Madison #54 Q1 1-1 Q2: 0-1 Q3: 7-1 Q4: 22-0

[kayako]

Big win for Illinois.

[stever20]

Big win for Texas A&M tonight.

[stever20]

Oregon beats Arizona. Bid theif potential for sure. Also now if Colorado wins tonight, that winner would avoid Dayton obviously.

[stever20]

Lunardi Update after tonight:
last 4 byes:
TCU
Michigan St
Texas A&M
Oklahoma

last 4 in:
St John's
Colorado
Seton Hall
Virginia

First 8 out:
New Mexico
Indiana St
Pittsburgh
Providence
Kansas St
Wake Forest
Ohio St
Villanova

Would flip New Mexico and Virginia if New Mexico wins tonight.

Seton Hall rooting for UNC and Washington St/Colorado winner tomorrow for sure. And also Florida Atlantic.