Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Xudash]

As has been mentioned repeatedly here, the Big East is in a very strong position, even with all of the NIL and portal commotion, and with all the realignment activity to-date. We probably should sit tight if we don't have to add for some unforeseen reason, assuming the new media agreement works out to our advantage. Then perhaps some interesting options could come our way, making expansion make sense.

I wonder if the BE is actually in a strong negotiating position with Fox. In a given week, up to 40% of our games involve DePaul or Georgetown, and there's been way too many blowout uninteresting games this season. 12 is so much better than 11, it wouldn't surprise me if just a decently drawing program (TV not attendance) makes it worth expanding.

Fair point, k. I don’t know.

I’m going with UCONN and Nova’s NC’s and some of the coaching upgrades we have now. We’ll see how they decide/play it.

[stever20]

As has been mentioned repeatedly here, the Big East is in a very strong position, even with all of the NIL and portal commotion, and with all the realignment activity to-date. We probably should sit tight if we don't have to add for some unforeseen reason, assuming the new media agreement works out to our advantage. Then perhaps some interesting options could come our way, making expansion make sense.

I wonder if the BE is actually in a strong negotiating position with Fox. In a given week, up to 40% of our games involve DePaul or Georgetown, and there's been way too many blowout uninteresting games this season. 12 is so much better than 11, it wouldn't surprise me if just a decently drawing program (TV not attendance) makes it worth expanding.

to your point 31% of all conference games this year have been blowouts per ken pom(20+ point margin). Only the WCC with a higher %. 3rd place is MWC at only 20.2%.

[kayako]

to your point 31% of all conference games this year have been blowouts per ken pom(20+ point margin). Only the WCC with a higher %. 3rd place is MWC at only 20.2%.

Yikes that's an ugly picture!

[stever20]

to your point 31% of all conference games this year have been blowouts per ken pom(20+ point margin). Only the WCC with a higher %. 3rd place is MWC at only 20.2%.

Yikes that's an ugly picture!

yeah when you're mentioned in the same breath as the WCC for blowouts, that's not good.

Georgetown and DePaul have 18 of them. That still leaves 13 other blowouts.

[dakphonics]

Here are some stats ranking teams in our conference if VCU, Gonzaga, and Dayton were apart of it:

HOME ATTENDANCE (BASED OFF 2022 NUMBERS)
Dayton is the clear winner here of the 3 new teams, and they have the best most historic arena. They always rank in the top 25 nationally for attendance.
1 Creighton 16,611
2 Marquette 13,495
3 Dayton 13,407
4 Uconn 10,345
5 Providence 9,933
6 Villanova 9,201
7 Xavier 9,038
8 Seton Hall 8,577
9 Butler 7,608
10 VCU 6,827
11 St. John's 6,273
12 Gonzaga 6,000
13 Georgetown 5,525
14 DePaul 3,256


TOTAL 20 WIN SEASONS
Dayton is the winner here again. In the all time wins list, Dayton is ranked in the top 50 with several other Big East teams.
1 Villanova 45
2 St. John's 43
3 Marquette 40
4 Dayton 39
5 Uconn 35
6 Creighton 35
7 Xavier 34
8 Gonzaga 33
9 Providence 30
10 Georgetown 29
11 VCU 25
12 DePaul 24
13 Butler 23
14 Seton Hall 20


TOTAL ATTENDANCE (# OF NEW POTENTIAL FANS PRODUCED ANNUALLY)
VCU is a big public school, so they are the best option, but as you can see here, Dayton would be in the top half of the conference if added also.
1 Uconn 26,876
2 DePaul 21,670
3 Georgetown 20,984
4 VCU 20,958
5 SJU 12,900
6 Dayton 11,971
7 Marquette 11,400
8 Villanova 10,800
9 Seton Hall 9,881
10 Creighton 8,735
11 Gonzaga 7,306
12 Xavier 6,632
13 Butler 4,825
14 Providence 4,807


TOTAL WIN COUNT LAST 25 YEARS
Gonzaga, is #2 in number of wins the last 25 years behind only Kansas. Playing in the WCC helps. As you can see, VCU and Dayton are pretty evenly matched. And I would say the A10 has been much more competitive over the last 25 years than the WCC.
1 Gonzaga 711
2 Villanova 592
3 Uconn 581
4 Creighton 572
5 Xavier 571
6 VCU 569
7 Dayton 546
8 Butler 543
9 Marquette 527
10 Georgetown 456
11 Providence 450
12 Seton Hall 446
13 St. John's 404
14 DePaul 310


Distance from MSG
VCU and Dayton both fit into the Big East footprint just fine. This is to more demonstrate the ridiculousness of Gonzaga. Which is more than twice the distance away from the 2nd farthest away school, and goes from a CT/ET timezone conference, to a conference spanning 4 timezones. Do Providence and Villanova fans really want to watch their teams tip at 10 or 11 PM when their team plays on the road in Spokane? Gross.
1 St. John's 13.4
2 Seton Hall 17.8
3 Villanova 105
4 Uconn 145
5 Providence 179
6 Georgetown 249
7 VCU 336
8 Daytpm 609
9 Xavier 637
10 Butler 716
11 DePaul 795
12 Marquette 882
13 Creigthon 1244
14 Gonzaga 2575


DISTANCE TO CLOSEST SCHOOL IN MILES
As you can see from this chart, the Xavier being to close to Dayton thing doesn't make a whole lot of sense. A lot of schools have another school nearby. There is not a lot of difference between 50 miles and 100 miles.
1 Gonzaga Creighton 1375
2 Creighton DePaul 471
3 Butler Xavier 118
T4 Georgetown VCU 107
T4 VCU Georgetown 107
6 Villanova Seton Hall 97
T7 DePaul Marquette 88
T7 Marquette DePaul 88
T9 Uconn Providence 52
T9 Providence Uconn 52
T11 Xavier Dayton 48
T11 Dayton Xavier 48
T13 Seton Hall St. John's 40
T13 St. John's Seton Hall 40


NCAA TOURNAMENT APPEARNCES
This doesn't tell the whole story of tournament success. But Gonzaga wins by a mile. VCU and Dayton are pretty much the same. But as a Creighton guy, I also know that tournament success is harder In a 1-2 bid league, as is recruiting. Dayton and VCU both over perform.
1 Villanova 41
2 Uconn 37
3 Marquette 36
4 Georgetown 31
5 St. John's 30
6 Xavier 29
7 Gonzaga 25
8 Creighton 25
9 Providence 22
10 DePaul 22
11 VCU 19
12 Dayton 18
13 Butler 16
14 Seton Hall 14


Media Market
Richmond is a bigger market than Spokane and Dayton. It is often said that Dayton is the same media market as Cincinnati. No it isn't. If you've ever been to Dayton you know it is its own city and its own distinct metro. That's like people saying Madison Wisconsin and Milwaukee are the same. Or Lincoln Nebraska and Omaha. Or Providence and Boston. No they aren't. I've been all over the country and I think Omaha is a great city, and I wouldn't say that about Dayton. However, Dayton is similar in size, and their fans love their local basketball team A LOT. There are more people in Dayton that care about the basketball team with their city's namesake, than there are in Chicago cheering for DePaul by a mile. They sellout UD arena.
1 St. John's New York 19,557,311
2 Seton Hall NewYork 19,557,311
3 DePaul Chicago 9,274,140
4 Georgetown WashingtonDC 6,265,183
5 Villanova Philadelphia 6,241,164
6 Xavier Cincinnati 2,258,099
7 Butler Indianapolis 2,119,839
8 Providence Providence 1,673,802
9 Marquette Milwaukee 1,559,792
10 VCU Richmond 1,339,182
11 UConn Hartford 1,158,269
12 Creighton Omaha-Council Bluffs 976,671
13 Dayton Dayton 812,595
14. Gonzaga Spokane 597,919


Unless the conference seasons get stretched to 22 games, I'd keep it at 11. If we add anyone, I'd pick Dayton because I think t makes the most sense long-term. Like if Mark Few retires and Gonzaga settles back to the middle of the pack, I think we'd all be annoyed that we have to watch games tip at 10 and 11 PM and have a 4 time zone conference just because Gonzaga was really good in the WCC. Long term I just don't see it as sustainable. I think it is more likely that the super conferences break off football from everything else and allow the olympic sports to reconstitute into regional conferences once again that exist outside football. And if that were to happen my 1 team add would be Syracuse.

[Husky_U]

Media Market
Richmond is a bigger market than Spokane and Dayton. It is often said that Dayton is the same media market as Cincinnati. No it isn't. If you've ever been to Dayton you know it is its own city and its own distinct metro. That's like people saying Madison Wisconsin and Milwaukee are the same. Or Lincoln Nebraska and Omaha. Or Providence and Boston. No they aren't. I've been all over the country and I think Omaha is a great city, and I wouldn't say that about Dayton. However, Dayton is similar in size, and their fans love their local basketball team A LOT. There are more people in Dayton that care about the basketball team with their city's namesake, than there are in Chicago cheering for DePaul by a mile. They sellout UD arena.
1 St. John's New York 19,557,311
2 Seton Hall NewYork 19,557,311
3 DePaul Chicago 9,274,140
4 Georgetown WashingtonDC 6,265,183
5 Villanova Philadelphia 6,241,164
6 Xavier Cincinnati 2,258,099
7 Butler Indianapolis 2,119,839
8 Providence Providence 1,673,802
9 Marquette Milwaukee 1,559,792
10 VCU Richmond 1,339,182
11 Creighton Omaha-Council Bluffs 976,671
12 Dayton Dayton 812,595
13 Gonzaga Spokane 597,919
14 Uconn Hartford-New Haven 573,244

Where did these numbers come from?

[Vill]

Speaking purely as a fan, none of Dayton, SLU, nor VCU move the needle for me. That is, I wouldn't be terribly motivated to buy tickets to watch them play a game in my arena.

Gonzaga, Syracuse or Notre Dame? Now, you've got my attention.

[FenwayFriar]

Speaking purely as a fan, none of Dayton, SLU, nor VCU move the needle for me. That is, I wouldn't be terribly motivated to buy tickets to watch them play a game in my arena.

Gonzaga, Syracuse or Notre Dame? Now, you've got my attention.

100%. Gonzaga, Old Big East, or Bust. I'd give it a 55% chance it's Bust, 40% chance we add Gonzaga, and 5% chance we ever add an old friend.

As for the rest, the C7 passed on them in 2013. The Big East has passed on them ever since. The league knows they can add any of them at any time. It's not an instance where the league needs to be proactive to add them since they have nowhere else to go. It's all about adding value. An A10 team simply does not add enough value at the current time. It only dilutes everything for the rest of us. The league is aiming for expansion upwards not downwards. And this is coming from someone who enjoys A10 hoops and follows UMass and URI.

[dakphonics]

I would argue accurately that Dayton would have provided more value and achieved more credibility since the reconstitution of the Big East than half of the teams in the conference. And that’s Dayton without a Big East label to help with recruiting and budget. Unlike DePaul, every coach that has been at Dayton since the 50s has won, and been to the NCAAs. They have mad local support, and that makes all the difference. It’s hard to set the world on fire in a mid major conference, when your program is disrupted by your coaches leaving and players getting raided in the portal, and yet Dayton always finds its way back to success. If Mark Few didn’t love fly fishing so much Gonzaga would be no different. Gonzaga wins because of consistency and stability with a high level coach that everyone knows is not leaving. Had Mark Few left after his 4 20 win season for a high major job, most of us wouldn’t know that Gonzaga was a school. And if Mark Few is what makes it all happen, what confidence is there that Gonzaga will continue being Gonzaga when he’s gone? Their preeminence over the whole Northwest is not inevitable or sustainable from the WCC.and if they were in a conference where they lost 8 games a year in the Big East I think there’d be a little less shine on the program.

That said, unless the conference needs a 12th member, and unless they were going to a 22 games schedule, I wouldn’t mess with it, because Dayton isn’t going anywhere. If there is a realistic chance FBS football breaks off from the rest of Olympic sports and allows Olympic sports to operate in separate conferences, I think there is a good chance of Syracuse getting back together with the Big East. But FBS football divorcing from Olympic sports would be very disruptive to college athletics and who knows what it would mean for the Big East. The stability of the conference wouldn’t be the same in such a scenario.

[dakphonics]

Media Market
Richmond is a bigger market than Spokane and Dayton. It is often said that Dayton is the same media market as Cincinnati. No it isn't. If you've ever been to Dayton you know it is its own city and its own distinct metro. That's like people saying Madison Wisconsin and Milwaukee are the same. Or Lincoln Nebraska and Omaha. Or Providence and Boston. No they aren't. I've been all over the country and I think Omaha is a great city, and I wouldn't say that about Dayton. However, Dayton is similar in size, and their fans love their local basketball team A LOT. There are more people in Dayton that care about the basketball team with their city's namesake, than there are in Chicago cheering for DePaul by a mile. They sellout UD arena.
1 St. John's New York 19,557,311
2 Seton Hall NewYork 19,557,311
3 DePaul Chicago 9,274,140
4 Georgetown WashingtonDC 6,265,183
5 Villanova Philadelphia 6,241,164
6 Xavier Cincinnati 2,258,099
7 Butler Indianapolis 2,119,839
8 Providence Providence 1,673,802
9 Marquette Milwaukee 1,559,792
10 VCU Richmond 1,339,182
11 Creighton Omaha-Council Bluffs 976,671
12 Dayton Dayton 812,595
13 Gonzaga Spokane 597,919
14 Uconn Hartford-New Haven 573,244

Where did these numbers come from?

I used census statistical data on metropolitan areas, but I messed up. I know New Haven and Hartford aren’t the same area, and yet for some reason I used New Haven’s stats. I fixed it above. Hartford should be #11 with 1.1 million and is now.