Bubble Watch 2/29/24

[stever20]

33 TCU Sat @ 10 BYU Q1-lost 75-87
34 Nevada Fri vs 217 Fresno St Q4-won 74-66
35 Colorado St Sat vs 170 Wyoming Q4-won 70-62
36 Michigan St Sat @ 2 Purdue Q1-lost 74-80
37 Florida Atlantic Sat vs 140 Tulane Q3-won 79-73
38 Texas Sat vs 114 Oklahoma St Q3-won 81-65
39 Virginia Sat @ 13 Duke Q1-lost 48-73
40 New Mexico Sat @ 26 Boise St Q1-lost 79-89
----first four------
41 Seton Hall Sun @ 4 UConn Q1-lost 61-91
42 Gonzaga Thu @ 54 San Francisco Q1-won 86-68 Sat @ 15 Saint Mary's Q1-won 70-57
43 Wake Forest Sat @ 60 Va Tech Q1-lost 76-87
44 Providence Sat vs 32 Villanova Q2-lost 60-71
----cutline---------
69 Villanova Sat @ 56 Providence Q1-won 71-60
70 St John's off until Tue
71 Utah Thu vs 116 Stanford Q3-won 90-68, Sat vs 115 Cal Q3-won 88-59
72 Colorado Sun vs 116 Stanford Q3-won 81-71
73 Kansas St Sat @ 45 Cincinnati Q1-lost 72-74
74 Iowa Sat @ 48 Northwestern Q1-won 87-80
75 James Madison Fri @ 322 Coastal Carolina Q4-won 86-76
76 Ole Miss Sat @ 149 Missouri Q3-won 84-78
77 Drake Sun vs 58 Bradley Q2-won 74-66
78 Texas A&M Sat @ 97 Georgia Q2-won 70-56
79 Syracuse Sat @ 209 Louisville Q3-won 82-76
80 Oregon Sat @ 3 Arizona Q1-lost 83-103
81 Pittsburgh Sat @ 91 Boston College Q2-won 90-65
82 Memphis Thu @ 173 East Carolina Q3-won 82-58 Sun vs 126 UAB Q3-won 106-87
83 Cincinnati Sat vs 74 Kansas St Q2-won 74-72
84 UNLV Sat vs 239 San Jose St Q4-won 68-50
85 Butler Sat @ 319 DePaul Q4-won 82-63

[ArmyVet]

44 Providence Sat vs 32 Villanova Q2
----cutline---------
69 Villanova Sat @ 56 Providence Q1
70 St John's off until Tue

If this is true, it's almost unbelievable. The last team in, plus the first two teams out, are all from the Big East?

[stever20]

44 Providence Sat vs 32 Villanova Q2
----cutline---------
69 Villanova Sat @ 56 Providence Q1
70 St John's off until Tue

If this is true, it's almost unbelievable. The last team in, plus the first two teams out, are all from the Big East?

yup looking around, seems pretty reasonable.

I do think the Providence/Nova game will give some clarity, especially if Nova were to win. I think Nova would jump up 3-4 spots, while Providence would drop as much. Then it'd be St John's right at the cutline.

[kayako]

BE being in this position despite not taking any bad losses vs. DePaul or Georgetown is crazy. But just as I thought 9 teams cannibalizing each other is bad, especially with uconn not donating many games. MWC will get 6 teams in the tournament despite inferior ooc metrics. What can we do about this? Been saying this forever but BE doesn't schedule well ooc.

[stever20]

BE being in this position despite not taking any bad losses vs. DePaul or Georgetown is crazy. But just as I thought 9 teams cannibalizing each other is bad, especially with uconn not donating many games. MWC will get 6 teams in the tournament despite inferior ooc metrics. What can we do about this? Been saying this forever but BE doesn't schedule well ooc.

some bad losses by the bubble teams. Nova of course. St John's with BC. Xavier w/o their 2 bad OOC losses would be 16-12 and right there with a decent shot still. Then you have Butler who did well OOC be the team to fall apart in conference play. Some of it just is bad luck.

[kayako]

Not sure if it's just bad luck. BE probably should've had 4 bids last season if uconn didn't have their inexplicable slump. You mentioned Nova, and yeah that's the best example of not scheduling well. Are we doing everything we can to maximize our chances? I don’t know about other schools, but Villanova isn't.

[stever20]

Not sure if it's just bad luck. BE probably should've had 4 bids last season if uconn didn't have their inexplicable slump. You mentioned Nova, and yeah that's the best example of not scheduling well. Are we doing everything we can to maximize our chances? I don’t know about other schools, but Villanova isn't.

Ehh I think what happened with Nova in the Big 5 thing is a once in a 25 yr period type of thing really. If that often. Freakish type of thing. Just go 1-2 even and looking much better right now.

[billyjack]

The Friars have no bad losses (yet). We have several great wins. Every OOC win was by double digits except vs Georgia by 7.

Will the committee provide us with a Hopkins sympathy factor, having rebounded after a 4 game adjustment?

Seeing say Wake Forest plopped ahead of us, Villanova, and the Johnnies just blows my mind.

Is PC going to be forced to beat #1 UConn to get into the NCAA's? While Wake Forest just needs to follow up their sh-tshow in South Bend by pummeling Virginia Tech, and then home to Georgia Tech and Clemson?

[stever20]

The Friars have no bad losses (yet). We have several great wins. Every OOC win was by double digits except vs Georgia by 7.

Will the committee provide us with a Hopkins sympathy factor, having rebounded after a 4 game adjustment?

Seeing say Wake Forest plopped ahead of us, Villanova, and the Johnnies just blows my mind.

Is PC going to be forced to beat #1 UConn to get into the NCAA's? While Wake Forest just needs to follow up their sh-tshow in South Bend by pummeling Virginia Tech, and then home to Georgia Tech and Clemson?

Don't think have to beat UConn, but I think PC going to have to beat Nova to make it. I don't think you guys get in at 19-12 only beating Georgetown the rest of the way. Or if they don't beat Nova, they would have to win Wed night in the BET and then Thursday against Creighton. I think one more good win clinches things for you guys.

[kayako]

Ehh I think what happened with Nova in the Big 5 thing is a once in a 25 yr period type of thing really. If that often. Freakish type of thing. Just go 1-2 even and looking much better right now.

There's a good reason teams don't play mid-major teams on the road, but I've said enough about this already. My general feeling is that BE teams schedule to prepare for BE season, and it probably blew up in our face this season with subpar ooc record. One thing I want to see implemented is to replace Gavitt games with a pair of conference games for each team.