UCONN, The Big East and realignment

[hoops22]

It'll be interesting once the NCAA cuts ties and does not sponsor bowl series football anymore (not championships). This will allow major football to go off on its own, and likely see conferences realigned again based on FCS football and basketball. This will likely lead to a breakup of the Big East and, for those original Big East schools, likely a return to the old conference in looks. Unfortunately, this may see Creighton, DePaul, Marquette, Butler, and Xavier out and into their own version of a midwestern Big East.

Just imagine a major realignment based on the schools deciding not to break off bowl football and becoming championship level football. This will be massive and possibly give the NCAA more power and credibility to work on NIL.

I don't see a path where Georgetown, Villanova, Seton Hall, St. Johns, and Providence all walk away or get offered by the ACC as a basketball only addition. Maybe Nova and Georgetown as those are big brands in great markets but that would likely be it. UConn really is the only school shopping for football.

I disagree with this. Once the ACC gets picked apart, they will have no choice but to accept the fact that it's "game over" as far as being taken seriously as a major football conference. At that point they will likely try to resuscitate themselves as the elite basketball conference they once were. Especially if Duke gets left behind as they are the most elite name in college basketball. I think Georgetown would leave us, as they would like to see Duke, Virginia, Georgia Tech etc.. as their academic peers. Athletic success has seemed secondary to them for awhile now. UCONN also leaving is a given. The real danger to the BE would be what would Villanova do? If the ACC presents it to Villanova that they get first crack, but if they turn it down the offer goes to Temple, that puts Nova in a bind. They would not want to see Temple bringing in Duke, Syracuse and Georgetown for home games, while Nova counters with St. John's, The Hall, and Providence as their biggest rivals. Also, it wouldn't be that hard for Nova to compete in a watered down ACC football league. The remaining teams will be weaker than now, and Nova would get a bump in talent playing in a better league. Nova nearly beat Syracuse a couple years ago at Cuse, losing in overtime when they went for two and the win, but coming up short. They're not that far from being able to compete with the dregs in the ACC right now as things are. The final knockout punch would be if St.John's also got an invite, although I'm not sure they will.

I believe the best thing for the BE is for the ACC grant of rights to hold, with Florida St. and Clemson staying put, and blocking any football lightweights for expansion. I never cared that much about the B12 taking UCONN. They would have declined again as they did in the AAC, to the benefit of northeast BE programs, like Providence and Nova. I'm not even sure Hurley would have stuck around playing in those one horse towns, if another reasonable offer came his way. But the ACC might be another matter one day. Some people here are kidding themselves if they think we'll be poaching leftovers like Duke and Syracuse. Any basketball league with Duke in it will be doing the poaching, not the other way around.

[adoraz]

I think it's pretty likely that if the ACC goes the basketball route then they would offer UConn, Nova, Georgetown and St. John's- the brands with the most value/upside (if St. John's/Georgetown turn things around). If the ACC wants to be the premiere basketball conference then they'd need to lock down MSG for their conference tournament and diminish the Big East in the Northeast. It's also been reported that the Big 12 will focus on basketball only schools next time they expand, which most likely would include the above schools but also could include midwestern teams like Creighton, Xavier or Marquette depending on how those teams perform these next several years.

UConn would go regardless as long as they're offered included football, nothing we can do about that besides hope that their football sucks. If several Big East teams are offered as a block then I think there's a possibility they'd accept, but IMO it's unlikely that just one would accept an invite. Also a possibility the entire Big East merges but I think that's less likely. Hopefully we get a great TV deal to lessen the likelihood of teams leaving.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Money drives all realignment decisions, yet I still struggle with the reality where any BE program would move the needle financially for a current or depleted ACC or expanded Big 12. If a non-football member earns about 1/4 of a full share of television revenue, they would need to make (at minimum) $8-9 million on their own, and that's assuming that the next ACC contract is maintained at current value. One has to believe it will only go down, not up, once FSU and Clemson leave (likely others). For the Big 12, it didn't make financial sense for either UConn or Gonzaga to move at current rates with 16 full members. Is the Big 12 - a conference moving forward without a single NCAAF NC program since 1984 (BYU) - going to increase value in 10 years? I cannot see it.

If bets were made today, it's likely that the following schools get poached from the ACC by the P2:

FSU
Clemson
North Carolina
Miami
Virginia
Virginia Tech

Additionally, for pairing purposes, these schools are also likely to be included:

NC State/Duke (UNC is bringing one or both along)
Georgia Tech (no way the B1G leaves them out for Atlanta market)

That's up to NINE schools getting taken. Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Wake Forest and Louisville are likely on the outside looking in. Louisville is an easy slide into the Big 12. Pittsburgh is a likely combo for them (and with UC, WVU, a nice grouping). If they move to 20, Memphis and USF get the calls for additional FL presence and football/basketball combo with Memphis.

That leaves Syracuse, Boston College and Wake without homes. There isn't anything from the AAC to call up. The Big 12 would have maximized value from the ACC. Notre Dame bolts for greener pastures. What are those three utilizing in trying to take from the BE? The BE would have the conference stability and NE presence/focus that both would desire in a non-football league. Those three bring the BE to 14, and UConn, Syracuse, BC and Wake create FB alliance (and can include Army) that would likely bring in $6-$12 million on their own. Add that with a BE TV deal (and added basketball revenues), they are not P2 but aren't G5 either.

Not positive on Syracuse, but I'm pretty confident that BC is back in the BE once the ACC crumbles. They would not have a home in either the Big Ten or SEC, and there might not be enough left in raided ACC.

[Burrito]

Once at least 3-4 ACC schools leave for the P2, panic will set in with the remaining members. At that point, I could also see the Big 12 jumping in and poaching a couple of schools (like Louisville and Pitt). They could be placed in an eastern pod with Cincinnati, West Virginia and UCF. We are going to have to wait a long time for the ACC GOR to expire but then things will move quickly. We could have three conferences raiding the ACC.

[DeltaV]

I think you're over estimating the number of ACC schools that get poached, and that there will be enough schools remaining that they can remain a somewhat relevant entity, even if they're not a football contender anymore.

We'll see, I guess.. Two years ago no one probably would have believed that the PAC12 would be on the brink of extinction either. I guess it depends on when the BIG/SEC juggernaut decides to close the doors on expansion for good.

[Omaha1]

Florida state sure made a lot of noise about leaving the ACC couple of weeks ago, only to end up realizing that the GOR they signed is probably lock tight. If there was any chance to legally bolt, I assume they would have already.

[Django]

I think it was FSU imagining that another conference was interested in them, like SDSU and UCONN, only to realize that nobody in the P2 wants them. Now all three have to return to conferences that don’t even want them either because of their delusional, self centered, idiotic behavior the past few months. I also find it amusing that all three have assholeish, fair weathered and classless fan bases.

[Omaha1]

UConn got hammered 35-14 by Georgia State.

Not the two time defending national champ Bulldogs. But by their pipsqueak cousin down the road.

It’s time to give up on the football dream.

[adoraz]

I think it was FSU imagining that another conference was interested in them, like SDSU and UCONN, only to realize that nobody in the P2 wants them. Now all three have to return to conferences that don’t even want them either because of their delusional, self centered, idiotic behavior the past few months. I also find it amusing that all three have assholeish, fair weathered and classless fan bases.

FSU, along with a few other ACC schools, are 100% wanted by the SEC / Big Ten. The Grant of Rights is airtight and they'd be giving up hundreds of millions, so financially they really can't leave yet.

UConn is totally different. They're just not wanted, and their football start will just amplify that. If the Big 12 passed on them after winning a basketball championship and showing a pulse in football, I couldn't see them being offered next time either. ACC may be a possibility if schools can negotiate out of the GoR, but that's unlikely within the next few years IMO.

[Xudash]

Money drives all realignment decisions, yet I still struggle with the reality where any BE program would move the needle financially for a current or depleted ACC or expanded Big 12. If a non-football member earns about 1/4 of a full share of television revenue, they would need to make (at minimum) $8-9 million on their own, and that's assuming that the next ACC contract is maintained at current value. One has to believe it will only go down, not up, once FSU and Clemson leave (likely others). For the Big 12, it didn't make financial sense for either UConn or Gonzaga to move at current rates with 16 full members. Is the Big 12 - a conference moving forward without a single NCAAF NC program since 1984 (BYU) - going to increase value in 10 years? I cannot see it.

If bets were made today, it's likely that the following schools get poached from the ACC by the P2:

FSU
Clemson
North Carolina
Miami
Virginia
Virginia Tech

Additionally, for pairing purposes, these schools are also likely to be included:

NC State/Duke (UNC is bringing one or both along)
Georgia Tech (no way the B1G leaves them out for Atlanta market)

That's up to NINE schools getting taken. Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Wake Forest and Louisville are likely on the outside looking in. Louisville is an easy slide into the Big 12. Pittsburgh is a likely combo for them (and with UC, WVU, a nice grouping). If they move to 20, Memphis and USF get the calls for additional FL presence and football/basketball combo with Memphis.

That leaves Syracuse, Boston College and Wake without homes. There isn't anything from the AAC to call up. The Big 12 would have maximized value from the ACC. Notre Dame bolts for greener pastures. What are those three utilizing in trying to take from the BE? The BE would have the conference stability and NE presence/focus that both would desire in a non-football league. Those three bring the BE to 14, and UConn, Syracuse, BC and Wake create FB alliance (and can include Army) that would likely bring in $6-$12 million on their own. Add that with a BE TV deal (and added basketball revenues), they are not P2 but aren't G5 either.

Not positive on Syracuse, but I'm pretty confident that BC is back in the BE once the ACC crumbles. They would not have a home in either the Big Ten or SEC, and there might not be enough left in raided ACC.

I went back to read your post again carefully. I think you really have mailed this. Your “waterfall of logical moves“ really makes a lot of sense. Obviously, it really depends upon what happens with the “soft upper middle“ of the ACC in terms of their attractiveness to other conferences - it just will not be able to recover if it is gutted to deeply.

I actually have empathy for UConn basketball fans. On the other hand, UConn football fans have reached a delusional level.
It just seems at this point that Yukon will be in the big east for the duration. When your fan base believes that a win against NC State would be some kind of achievement in football, you know you’re thinking small. Then they end up performing small when they lose that game and follow that up with a loss to a Georgia State.

Overall, the ACC is in GOR jail for a while. And the higher our new media payout per school becomes, the more patient we become with waiting to see what happens when the ACC breaks up.

Your scenario paints a logical picture of all of that.