ESPN Way Too Early Top 25

[kayako]

Rothstein's latest:

https://collegehoopstoday.com/index.php/rothstein-files/rothstein-45-22-23-preseason-edition-2/

Comparing to his initial 4/5 version, we see that his outlook for the conference has gone up significantly...

2 Creighton (moved up 8 spots)
13 Nova (moved down 5 spots)
18 Xavier (moved up 15 spots)
25 UCONN (down one spot)
33 Providence (outside top 45 initially)
41 Marquette (down 5 spots)
44 St. John's (outside top 45 initially)

Then you're left with Butler, Georgetown, and Seton Hall with some upside potentials. DePaul isn't having the best offseason so far. I no longer think the conference will dip next season.

[kayako]

ESPN's Borzello:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/earlytop25050322/north-carolina-tar-heels-no-1-way-too-early-top-25-men-college-basketball-rankings-2022-23

5 Creighton (originally 9)
10 Villanova (originally 13)
24 UCONN (originally unranked)
25 Xavier (originally 20)

[Jet915]

Goodman:

#3 Creighton
#11 Nova
#24 Xavier

https://watchstadium.com/jeff-goodmans-way-too-early-preseason-top-25-for-2022-23-04-04-2022/

[adoraz]

Look like we should open the season with 2 top 10ish teams and then 1 or 2 others in the 20-25 range. Also several others RV. That'd be one of the league's best pre-season rankings... maybe even the best since realignment? Preseason last year for instance we only had #4 Villanova and #24 UConn, but of course the league outperformed that as it has done basically every year.

[kayako]

Look like we should open the season with 2 top 10ish teams and then 1 or 2 others in the 20-25 range. Also several others RV. That'd be one of the league's best pre-season rankings... maybe even the best since realignment? Preseason last year for instance we only had #4 Villanova and #24 UConn, but of course the league outperformed that as it has done basically every year.

It's always fun to look back!

2013-14: #17 Marquette
RV: Creighton, Villanova, Georgetown, SJU

2014-15: #12 Villanova
RV: Georgetown

2015-16: #11 Villanova, #24 Butler
RV: Georgetown, Xavier, Providence

2016-17: #4 Villanova, #7 Xavier, #22 Creighton
RV: Butler, Seton Hall

2017-18: #6 Villanova, #17 Xavier, #23 Seton Hall
RV: Providence, Butler

2018-19: #9 Villanova
RV: Marquette, Butler, SJU, Providence, Xavier

2019-20: #10 Villanova, #12 Seton Hall, #19 Xavier
RV: Marquette, Georgetown, Creighton, Providence

2020-21: #3 Villanova, #11 Creighton
RV: Providence, UCONN, Seton Hall

2021-22: #4 Villanova, #24 UCONN
RV: Xavier, SJU

[adoraz]

Look like we should open the season with 2 top 10ish teams and then 1 or 2 others in the 20-25 range. Also several others RV. That'd be one of the league's best pre-season rankings... maybe even the best since realignment? Preseason last year for instance we only had #4 Villanova and #24 UConn, but of course the league outperformed that as it has done basically every year.

It's always fun to look back!

2013-14: #17 Marquette
RV: Creighton, Villanova, Georgetown, SJU

2014-15: #12 Villanova
RV: Georgetown

2015-16: #11 Villanova, #24 Butler
RV: Georgetown, Xavier, Providence

2016-17: #4 Villanova, #7 Xavier, #22 Creighton
RV: Butler, Seton Hall

2017-18: #6 Villanova, #17 Xavier, #23 Seton Hall
RV: Providence, Butler

2018-19: #9 Villanova
RV: Marquette, Butler, SJU, Providence, Xavier

2019-20: #10 Villanova, #12 Seton Hall, #19 Xavier
RV: Marquette, Georgetown, Creighton, Providence

2020-21: #3 Villanova, #11 Creighton
RV: Providence, UCONN, Seton Hall

2021-22: #4 Villanova, #24 UCONN
RV: Xavier, SJU

I remember going over preseason vs final rankings a couple years ago and I think the Big East outperformed the preseason Top 25 every year. The only exception may be in the RV category because there tends to be way more NCAA teams RV at the beginning of the season vs the end, but regardless the league has clearly done much better than the AP expected.

I'm not necessarily sure that it's bias, more so I think the Big East has a lot of very solid teams each year and one or two or them tend to overperform relative to expectations and break into the Top 25 (such as Providence this year). It's critical for every team to put in the effort because you never know which team will unexpectedly represent the league in the rankings (hopefully next year it's the Johnnies... and several others too).

[kayako]

I remember going over preseason vs final rankings a couple years ago and I think the Big East outperformed the preseason Top 25 every year. The only exception may be in the RV category because there tends to be way more NCAA teams RV at the beginning of the season vs the end, but regardless the league has clearly done much better than the AP expected.

I'm not necessarily sure that it's bias, more so I think the Big East has a lot of very solid teams each year and one or two or them tend to overperform relative to expectations and break into the Top 25 (such as Providence this year). It's critical for every team to put in the effort because you never know which team will unexpectedly represent the league in the rankings (hopefully next year it's the Johnnies... and several others too).

You're probably right. The trend I've noticed is that the BE tends to outperform OOC, peak mid-season (as far as rankings go), then beat each other up senseless and drop out of the polls. It's not so much that there's preseason bias against the conference, rather we didn't have many teams that DO get bias in our favor. We have 2 now in Nova and UCONN. One thing that's worked in our favor is that our bottom tends to perform better than the dregs of other power conferences. I don't think the double round-robin helps.

[adoraz]

I remember going over preseason vs final rankings a couple years ago and I think the Big East outperformed the preseason Top 25 every year. The only exception may be in the RV category because there tends to be way more NCAA teams RV at the beginning of the season vs the end, but regardless the league has clearly done much better than the AP expected.

I'm not necessarily sure that it's bias, more so I think the Big East has a lot of very solid teams each year and one or two or them tend to overperform relative to expectations and break into the Top 25 (such as Providence this year). It's critical for every team to put in the effort because you never know which team will unexpectedly represent the league in the rankings (hopefully next year it's the Johnnies... and several others too).

You're probably right. The trend I've noticed is that the BE tends to outperform OOC, peak mid-season (as far as rankings go), then beat each other up senseless and drop out of the polls. It's not so much that there's preseason bias against the conference, rather we didn't have many teams that DO get bias in our favor. We have 2 now in Nova and UCONN. One thing that's worked in our favor is that our bottom tends to perform better than the dregs of other power conferences. I don't think the double round-robin helps.

Yep, exactly. Along with Nova and UConn, Creighton and Xavier are two teams that have done a lot during the past decade plus and sometimes are in the preseason rankings, even going back to their former conferences when they were regulars in the Top 25. They're not quite at Nova (S tier)/UConn (A tier) levels in the eyes of the AP, but they're getting there (B tier). A few other teams like Seton Hall, Providence, Butler and Marquette have done enough where they'll be ranked preseason if they have very strong teams.

As for the bottom dwellers like DePaul, St. John's and Georgetown, they likely won't sniff the preseason rankings unless they finish the year Top 25 and then return basically everyone. That's totally fair, but it's interesting how Xavier may be ranked to start the season despite finishing with the same 8-11 BE record as St. John's. If the jerseys were reversed I doubt Rothstein would still have Xavier at #18 and St. John's at #44. EDIT: actually on second thought, I forgot X won the NIT. That's why they're receiving a lot of AP votes. Well deserved for them.

Anyway, Creighton and Xavier are the closest to becoming perennial preseason Top 25 teams like Nova and UConn. Hopefully at least one of them can achieve that and then another Big East team joins them. Starting most seasons with 3-5 ranked teams rather than our usual 2 (exactly our average since realignment) would be great. Would help some with things like TV ratings during the first month of the season.

[gtmoBlue]

The arguments have already begun irt Creighton’s high wte projections. Several YT “shows” are already trotting out Kenpom numbers/quotes to curb the runaway enthusiasm.

By the time the AP preseason poll arrives in September, I would think Creighton will be positioned around #17-20. Nova will rise back to 10-11. BE coaches will pick CU 5th in conference. We shall see.

[gtmoBlue]

Nattering Naybobs of Negativism* and the "on Paper" argument...

"On paper"

Well, it has already begun. Beginning to hear a common refrain from media and online pundits. From Kenpom, Parrish, & the Field of 68, to a couple of unknown youngsters on some online internet (YT) hoops videos too. Folks citing last years Kenpom numbers, Net numbers, and my personal favorite...Creighton looks good 'on paper'. It is a common putdown by folks who can't or won't consider, let alone believe, that CU can actually compete at a high level. One young guy replying to Rothstein stated: "Can we stop with all the Creighton talk already?" It appears that many will negate the actual 2021-22 Jays record, but steadfastly use our stats from last season as a weapon to denigrate our team this coming year. They will look past the many victories, the many injuries, and the grit and determination our team showed - only to focus on good ol' Kenpom, NET, and SOS to downplay & browbeat us about the head & shoulders regarding NEXT Season.

Folks have no problem extolling the virtues of a UNC team that struggled for most of last season, and has lost considerable talent to graduation/the NBA draft/transfers, Or extolling the virtues of teams such as Arkansas, Houston, UK, and Auburn who have had to resort to bringing in several raw recruits and loads of transfer players. No issues there. Or a team such as TOSU who lost a ton of players and will be relying on a talented crop of Frosh - like the Jays did last season - but still gets ranked in the Top 25 of many preseason polls. There are millions of non-believers out there as John Q Public. Even winning will not convince those who [b]refuse[/b] to believe.

Seth Davis alluded to part of it today in his article/inerview with Mac.
Davis: All that heat presents a very high-class problem. Scheierman might have turned down the likes of Kansas, Kentucky and Duke to play in his home state, but those programs are used to lofty expectations. McDermott knows his players will have to adjust to the new temperature. “I’ve been on both sides of this game,” he said, chuckling. “Usually when you’re picked eighth or ninth there’s a reason, so I’d rather be in this situation. That’s going to be part of the maturation process for this group in understanding how on point you have to be when you get the target on your back. It’s going to be something we’re going to have to learn to adapt to.”

We will have to listen to this "on paper" cry for the next six months. AND, heaven forbid, if for whatever reason our Jays fail to have their normal fast start out the gate, the noise will become unbearable.

So put your gear on, buckle up, and get ready for a rough ride this offseason. The nattering neighbobs of negativism will be going for broke in chastising the Jays.


*Spiro Agnew; originally used in a 1970 congressional speech referring to politicians. The media later appropriated the phrase as a snipe at themselves.

How appropriate.