The Conference Race Coming Into View

[dakphonics]

I assume that the conference race is decided based on win % again this season like it was last year. And if that is the case I've done a little work to figure out where each team is likely to finish. Butler, Villanova and DePaul are the only teams that are playing all 20 games. Providence is playing 17 games. The rest are playing 19. So it was tricky to work out win percentages with the wonky schedules, but here is where things are likely to shake out.

Providence and Villanova are all but guaranteed to finish 1 and 2. The reason why is that both teams need only 1 win to become untouchable by the rest of the pack. And one of those teams is already guaranteed to win their head-to-head rematch. Between the two of them fighting for first, its like this: Essentially if either team loses any game that isn't the head-to-head matchup, and then loses the head-to-head match up also, the other team will be champ. But if both teams lose only 1 game, Providence is the champ... even if Villanova beats them in the head-to-head. Basically neither team can afford more than 1 loss. This is an interesting race. Villanova is tracking for an .800 record. Providence looks like they will finish either .764 or .823. So this is really looks like its going to come down to whether or not Providence lays an egg.

The 3rd place race is tracking strongly for UConn based on win probability. They will likely win 3 of the remaining 4 and outpace Creighton who is currently dead even with them. It's not nearly as likely that the Jays win 3 of the last 4 but it is totally possible depending on injuries. If Jays are healthy Wednesday I could see them beating SJU on the road. And beating UConn at home, and then getting sweet revenge against Seton Hall on senior night again. It's just not as likely as UConn winning 3. Marquette has almost no hope of 3rd. And they are close to being locked out of 4th also. Creighton simply needs to win 2 of the remaining 4, or win 1 game and Marquette lose 1 game. If either of those scenarios happen Creighton will at the very least finish with the same record, but beat them in the tiebreaker. But Marquette should finish no worse than 5th and possibly 4th.

Xavier, St. Johns, and Seton Hall are all basically in the exact same spot with the same record. All 3 are expected to win 2 to 3 more games, but at this point all are expected to finish in that pack somewhere between 6th and 8th.

Butler is very likely to finish 9th
DePaul is very likely to finish 10th
Georgetown is very likely to finish 11th

[pc5151]

This site needs a 'like' or 'upvote' option. In absence of that, nice work here!

[billyjack]

This site needs a 'like' or 'upvote' option. In absence of that, nice work here!

Totally agree, that is a great post.

[gtmoBlue]

The Butler w was Huge for Prov. If X wins over Prov then the Friars will end up 12-5
(assuming losses to Lil Cr8n and the Radnorites).
That makes Nova (15-5) the Champs, Lil Cr8n (14-5) 2nd, Prov 3rd (12-5). (Nova losses @UConn/@Butler)
Same scenario but Prov wins - Prov is champ, lil Cr8n 2nd, Nova 3rd.

If Prov only loses zero or 1 game-they are champs. 2 or more Nova is champ. Odds . as
Prov cannot beat Lil Cr8n and Nova.

[admin]

From our friend Matt Hackman.

[sju88grad]

I think I posted this last year…..great website to plug in various scenarios and see how the BET seeding will play out…

http://bball.notnothing.net/bigeast.php?sport=mbb

[kayako]

It's Providence's regular season title to lose. I'm not a believer in asterisks, but the optics will look bad if they get swept by Nova and never gets those 3 games made up.

[dakphonics]

Here is an update to the conference race after the madness of the Wednesday night games... Wow I was glued to the TV all night. I feel slightly bad for all 25 of the Wyoming fans that wanted to watch Colorado State and missed most of the game because of the 3OT thriller in Providence.

I want to apologize in advance for how much info is here. I am kind of a nerd. And I think that what I have here is exactly how its going to play out. Except positions 6 through 8. That could still go a number of ways.

PREDICTED OUTCOMES FOR CONFERENCE TOURNEY SEEDING:

#1 PROVIDENCE
Most probable win % - .823
They Need 1 win to secure the title, or Villanova to lose 1 game. It is still true that Providence can afford to lose the game to Villanova. This is still an interesting race. It will be interesting to see how Providence plays Saturday after playing 4 Overtimes in the last 2 games. But the boys are young and the game is at home, and Jays lost their star PG. And most importantly the X factor in the conference race that is often forgot about is the senior night boost. 5 of Providence's 6 biggest contributors, all who average over 25 min per game are seniors. Do you really think they are going to lose? F no. I think Creighton actually has a good solution for their PG situation, and might not do as badly as people might think. But I believe that Saturday could be a buzz saw for the Jays simply because it's senior night at the Dunk. For anyone who wants to bitch about Providence winning this playing only 17 games... especially if you are a Villanova fan you can just sit down right now. Because last year Creighton had more conference wins than Nova and played all 20 games while Nova played 14. And some of the game Nova didn't play were against the top half of the conference. Don't hate Providence. Hate imbalanced schedules. This nonsense is why we should all love the double round robin and stop talking about expansion unless the DRR is preserved. I digress...

#2 VILLANOVA
Most probable win % - .800
I kinda talked about the situation above with regards to why they probably won't beat Providence, But like providence they need only 1 more win to lock Creighton and UCONN out of the top 2 positions. And just like Providence isn't going to lose at home on senior night. Neither is Villanova with Gillespie, Slater, Samuels, and Daniels all playing their last game at home. No friggin' way. They beat Providence on the road. They will win it at home. Villanova could have their hands full for the same reason on the road at Butler. I'll talk about that when I talk about Butler.

#3 UCONN
Most probable win % - .684-.736
UCONN has a good chance of running the table from here. They play @Georgetown which is as much a gimme as can be for a top tier team this season. They also get DePaul at home. DePaul is not as bad as their record in my opinion. But again... do you think UConn is going to lose to DePaul in their final home game of the year. No. The Creighton game next Wednesday is their biggest hazard on the schedule and possibly the game that truly determines 2 things... whether or not UConn will be the 3 seed in the tournament, and whether or not the Jays are going to be okay without Nembhard at PG. That 2nd part is a big question. But lets be real, even without that injury to Nembhard, UConn has games against DePaul, and Georgetown. Creighton has games against Providence and Seton Hall. How do you think this is going to go? To fall to a 4 seed UConn seed, Creighton would need to beat them, and win 1 more against Seton Hall at home on senior night, or on the road against Providence. And in that case they would be tied for 3rd in the standings, but Creighton would get the 3 seed in the tie-breaker.

#4 CREIGHTON
Most probable win % - .631
The Jays beat the Huskies on their court with Kalkbrenner hurt most of the game. Kalkbrenner is now fully recovered, and Kaluma got significant minutes last night as well after a long stretch where he didn't play. This Creighton team without Nembhard is going to look way different. But at stretches this year Tre Alexander filled in for him, and the turnovers seemed to go down and the pace of play seemed a lot more controlled. Alexander isn't your typical uptempo sprint and spray it Creighton PG. But he is a tremendous athlete and can create his own problems because of his size. Is it possible that the Jays beat UConn next Wednesday in Omaha? You bet. I think that is totally possible. I also think that the Jays could beat Seton Hall on senior night. I think Creighton just got shell shocked when they played them on the road and it won't happen again. However... the senior night factor is not the same for the Jays as it is for other teams. The Jays have only 2 seniors, Hawkins and Alex O'Connell, both transfers. Effectively the rest of the team are underclassmen. Based on probability the Jays are likely to steal another W somewhere. 1 win is all they need to lockout Marquette. Since the Jays swept MU, Marquette could run the table at this point and if the Jays win one more the Jays would have the tie-breaker with Marquette. I bet Creighton wins 1 more game, and if they do they will be the 4 seed. If they win 2 games, and one of them is against UConn they will be the 3 seed. I just don't think it is as likely.

#5 MARQUETTE
Most probable win % - .578 - .631
For Marquette to finish 3rd UCONN would have to lose 2 of their remaining 3 games, and Creighton would have to lose all of their remaining games. Possible but not probable. Marquette has a pretty easy schedule to finish the year playing at home against Butler, on the road @DePaul, and then at home against St. John's. All of these are winnable games. But DePaul has beaten then ranked Seton Hall and Xavier at home. If Marquette loses even one game they can't finish above 5th. But are incredibly unlikely to finish below 5th also.

#6 SETON HALL
Most probable win % - .473 - . 526
#7 XAVIER
Most probable win % - .473
#8 ST. JOHNS
Most probable win % - .421 - .473
I'm not going to write a description of why these guys are likely to finish in these positions. It's way to convoluted to write in a short paragraph. And part of the problem is Xavier still has to play games against the other 2. And the results of those games could change the way these 3 stack up. But as of right now, I've only sorted these 3 based on the probable win % or the range of them. There are a lot of potential tie breaker scenarios with this bunch. But as of now, these 3 will almost certainly finish the season somewhere between 6 and 8.

#9 BUTLER
Most probable win % - .300
Once we get into #9, #10, and #11 the conversation turns into who are these teams not going to lose to. Butler is probably going to lose it's remaining games. 1 is at @Marquette. The other is at home against Villanova. I actually think if they win anything it will be the Villanova game. And the reason why is because Hinkle magic, and Butler is a senior heavy team. And I don't care what anyone says... senior night is a huge factor in team performance. Crazy things happen when a team with a lot of seniors play their last game at home. Butler will be playing for it's seniors... and there are A LOT of them: Thompson, Nze, Hodges, Golden, as well as Bolden, Groce, and David. But Nova is Nova. I'm not going to say Nova is going to lose. But Butler will probably make them work hard for it. Butler will be playing with nothing to lose on senior night against a top 10 team. Villanova will be playing to not have a L to Butler on it's record. The outcome will have no bearing on BE Tournament seeding.

#10 DEPAUL
Most probable win % - .200 - .250
I don't even want to talk about W's and Ls for DePaul. They are kinda in a no man's land between Georgetown and Butler. For DePaul to overtake Butler, DePaul would have to win all 4 of its remaining games. And that is almost as unlikely as it is that they lose all of their remaining games and for Georgetown to win 3. And that is what would have to happen for Georgetown to not finish in 11th.


#11 GEORGETOWN
Most probable win % - .000 - .052
Georgetown might win tonight at home when DePaul comes to visit. But that is their only good opportunity to win a game this season. They would have to win 2 more against UConn at home, or Seton Hall on the road or Xavier on the road for a chance to not be 11th.

[FriarJ]

Wow, this is some great work. Thanks.

A small point and it no way means that Nova won't win but the last home game against PC is not their senior night. The students will be on break for the Providence game.

[dakphonics]

Here is how I represent my work visually. There is a color bar in a column for each team. The bars get shorter as the season goes on. The upper limit of the bar represents the highest possible record, the lower limit of the bar represents the worst possible record. And the area in gray is the record at the end of the season that should be expected based on a composite of my own calculation and KenPom.com. Enjoy.