Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Husky_U]

I will say... It's nice to sit back and enjoy this new round of realignment knowing that we are in a strong and stable conference, not having to worry about losing Houston/Cincy and that putz, Aresco, replacing them with Southern Miss/Rice.

[Husky_U]

The PAC will kick the tires on the remaining schools. Geography dictates that the logical next adds are in that pile. Wouldn't be surprised to see Kansas get a serious look.

Kansas has a good men's basketball team and literally nothing else. They could be in big big trouble.

Ya, they're bascially us, but with AAU status and without a championship level WBB program. We'll see if that's enough for the PAC or B1G, but I'm skeptical.

[JayPak]

Let’s just absorb an entire western flank by bringing in Gonzaga, BYU, Kansas, Baylor.

Or just the 3 private schools, 2 of which played in the last national title game. Gets the BE to 14, a perfect split of 7 East and 7 West, and further solidifies private, religious identity while dramatically strengthening basketball.

Not a stretch at all to see Kansas and Iowa State to the B1G, Kansas for basketball, Iowa State for football. Both schools fit the footprint and both are in the AAU, which the B1G likes.

[Omaha1]

Pete Thamel:

What's next for the Big 12?

The league is beginning to discuss contingencies Thursday, as it’s obvious that this would be a devastating blow.

Expect the Big 12 to be aggressive in adding schools. It'll knock on doors at Arizona and Arizona State. Perhaps it'll try and lure Colorado back and pry Utah. The Pac-12 is weak now, but the core of USC, Oregon, UCLA and Washington are all more attractive to be aligned with than any of the Big 12 schools.

From there, the Big 12 will decide how big it wants to get. It has to decide whether to add two, four or six schools. Four seems like the most reasonable number, with Cincinnati, UCF, USF, BYU and Boise State the most likely candidates from outside the state of Texas. The potential addition of Houston and SMU becomes complicated, as Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech wouldn’t have much interest in more in-state competition.

Remember, it’s streaming subscriptions, not cable boxes, that matter most. BYU would appear to have the best option for that, with its national following. But BYU is always complicated, which prevented the Big 12 from adding it in 2016 when the Cougars' complicated LGBTQ history became a factor.

UCF and USF have great markets, but would the Big 12 want two Florida footholds? Cincinnati is a preseason Top 10 team that has been working hard behind the scenes to build for this moment. It also brings a big market and fertile recruiting area.

This is all sub-optimal for the American Athletic Conference, as it'll be a familiar trickle-down. In a similar food chain fallout that followed the ACC cannibalizing the Big East a decade ago, the Big 12 will go after the most attractive AAC candidates. The AAC will do its best to hold on to its top programs but a reconstructed Big 12 without Texas and Oklahoma should offer a more attractive financial landing spot than the current AAC.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Let’s just absorb an entire western flank by bringing in Gonzaga, BYU, Kansas, Baylor.

Or just the 3 private schools, 2 of which played in the last national title game. Gets the BE to 14, a perfect split of 7 East and 7 West, and further solidifies private, religious identity while dramatically strengthening basketball.

Not a stretch at all to see Kansas and Iowa State to the B1G, Kansas for basketball, Iowa State for football. Both schools fit the footprint and both are in the AAU, which the B1G likes.

The problem with that scenario is that neither Kansas nor Iowa State, individually or as a collective, add value to the Big Ten. Kansas is a bottom-3 P5 football program and the Big Ten already covers Iowa. Both do not move the needle and would only cut into the pie.

The B1G is going to expand only to dilute its current shares in order to compete with the SEC? No chance.

[GreatDaneAttorney]

We are moving towards both the SEC and B1G acquiring and consolidating all of the top remaining brands in college athletics. I very much see, eventually, the B1G taking the AAU PAC programs, along with the "Holy Grail" - UNC, Virginia, Duke and Georgia Tech - that was the original Jim Delaney vision. The SEC, in addition to Texas and Oklahoma, would eventually acquire Florida State, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and a few others. What we finish with is two national ultra-conferences that replace the NCAA as the higher authority in governance and oversight in college athletics. This is the start of slicing off the non-valuable entities in the P5 - the Kansas States, Washington States, Oregon States, Wake Forests, etc. - and keeping all of the revenues (and more) to the top grouping. Between the NIL and the expansion of the CFP, this is all coordinated. We are likely in for a rogue wave of realignment that will make the 2010-11 cycle look like a kiddy pool.

I share this opinion wholeheartedly. The Big East is not totally "safe" like some have suggested. We're probably fine for a few years, but power is shifting rapidly. The Big East will want to watch very carefully and may benefit from making some aggressive moves.

I agree that the P5 is about to shrink considerably. Maybe not even 40 programs will make the cut.

[Django]

The basketball budgets of those schools are similar to ours, or at least will be once we renegotiate. No reason to think the B1G wouldn’t annex us for BBall if the super conferences wanted to really cripple the NCAA... they would want us to replace March Madness.

The B12 is still going to be viable, and OU and UT will just become watered down in the SEC good ol boy corruption cartel. Houston, UCF, USF and Cincinnati will be strong replacements and they will still be a top BBALL conference.

Expanding the football playoff to 16 teams and getting rid of the bowl games would go a long way in shifting the balance of power. The bowls were created to help rebuild the South with this new northern game of football and its fans... now it’s the opposite. Move the football playoffs out of the South, end the corruption and you will see a more balanced national sport, the rust belt, where the game originated, now needs the help. Time to return the favor.

[GoldenWarrior11]

IMO, the Big East will be fine because of the institutional differences between our schools (even UConn) and these top-40 college brands. These are not only football-first, elite college athletic brands, but they are also large state institutions with large enrollments and alumni bases. There are no schools in the Big East that will be poached by any of the P5 because we don't have football. We are at the top of the pecking order in terms of non-football D1 conferences. As previously stated, our basketball budget (and spending) is very much on-par with the P5 already. We have the on-court success and have the fan support. These are football moves, first and foremost - and we thankfully got out of bed with football schools a decade ago.

Ironically, I would be shaking in my boots if I was Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Boston College or Wake Forest. I would not be surprised, in time, if they are left out of the inevitable P2 and desire a new conference home.

[MUPanther]

Long time, no see - realignment... how ya been?

IF it happens, the B12 just adds Houston and 1 other...oh well.

Not that easy gtmo.

The Big 12 is a shell of itself without Texas and Oklahoma.

It may survive, but it’s existing media payouts won’t.

Yep. look at the football TV schedule over the years. If it's not a game with OU or UT in it, that Big 12 game is not landing on FOX or ABC. That game falls to ESPN2 or FS1.

[ArmyVet]

Reported that OU and Texas have been working on this for the better part of a year. If so, there's no turning back at this point.

As an aside, pretty amazing for all parties to keep this hush-hush for so long.