Fox Sports 1 Update

[Xudash]

$8mm would be a good day at the office.

UCONN coming back to the BE is clearly a mutually beneficial outcome.

[gtmoBlue]

McNamara's article and thoughts are in keeping with what I and others have been saying previously.
However, $8M-9M is low, as fair market value/per game (FMV) will be approx.
$550K for tier 1 and $500K for tier 2 by 2025. Tier 1 fmv could see a 50% increase over these next
4 years- going from $450K/gm potentially up to $675K/gm, with Tier 2 potentially up to $600K/gm.

With 2020-2021 current average per game fair market value at approx $400-450K/Gm. The BE
should be able to negotiate a 5 yr deal in the range of $440-495 M - $8M (Tier 2) -9 M(Tier 1)/yr per school.
6 yr deal - $528-594 M, same $8-9M/yr
10 yr deal - $880-990M, same $8-9M/yr.
Remember, these are 2020-21 figures. 2025 FMV will, in all likelihood, be higher. I favor a 5 or 6
year deal, with provision for annual FMV adjustment (as it generally rises).

We got lowballed back in 2013, as we were a new conference and there were questions to be answered.
Fox took advantage of us due to the circumstances. Top tier 2013 FMV was $250K back then. We got $150K.

The FMV has nearly doubled over the last 8 years. Top tiers gaining from $200-250K to the current levels.
If we say growth will continue at such a clip, we can add another $200K to $275K over current values, by 2025
for negotiations or $600k for Tier 2 and $675 for Tier 1. More conservatively, growth was $25K/year- or $200K
over 8 years/$100K over 4 years. Yes, FMV could tank, but it has shown consistent gradual gains over time and
specifically these last 8 years. The guess below utilizes the conservative $100K increase over the next 4 years.

Guesstimate 2025: This guesstimate is more likely-more realistic as to what shall transpire.
2025 Tier 1 $550K/gm. $121M/yr or $605M/5yrs or $11M/Yr per school
2025 Tier 2 $500K/gm. $110M/yr or $550M/5yrs or $10M/Yr per school

In the ensuing years we have proven our mettle, our worth in the market. The Big East IS Tier 1 worthy!
Nova has been sterling, the Gold Standard with consistent excellence and 2 Nattys. The Muskies have
also shown excellence, but not as consistently, with an SS and EE. Prov, SH have consistently made the
Dance - 5 of 8 seasons, Butler, Cr8n, have shown signs of life. Our top 5-6 teams can go toe-to-toe with anyone.
Adding in UConn is icing on the cake.

The Big East has consistently been amongst the best major conferences, placing Firmly within the top six.
Even using the highly speculative and biased RPI we have consistently done well, averaging 3.375 over the
8 year span.
2013-14 4th,
14-15 3rd
15-16 4th
16-17 3rd
17-18 2nd
18-19 5th
19-20 1st
20-21 6th

The BEast is in a great negotiating position moving forward.

[gtmoBlue]

Update:
I did a review of the Forbes 2016 article on the the B1G's contract as well as reviewing some 2017 and 2015 articles on compensation.
My numbers were high on the FMV for last year and this year (2020-2021). Using the B1G's adjusted data, Tier 1 values for a game this season was
only approx. $367,500K, not $450K, so my numbers were skewed high. However, those numbers are close for a 2025 estimate.

Here is an updated and revised look for 2025. The BE will have to negotiate hard to get Tier 1, but we've built the history and track record to
support the negotiating position. Unfortunately Breaking into dbl digit millions with TV alone is not in the cards unless a bidding war ensues with
the other conferences mostly renegotiating before us.




Our other, non-TV revenue streams kick us over $10M annually individually, but those vary by school. The sole media revenue stream we have that
can catapult overall revenues into the upper teens to twenties ($M) per school is the Big East Digital Network (BEDN). However, not having insights
nor data into how the conference is attempting to grow the BEDN, it is difficult to gauge its' growth, development, and earnings potentials.
A lot depends on whom they have partnered with to develop the network, whom they have partnered with for streaming our various content,
and the particulars of the contractual agreements. We have tons of great content to put into the platform and a growing fanbase of online users.

The BEDN has the potential to become our biggest revenue stream and can provide 10's to 100's of millions in revenues to the conference over time.
I just hope they have the people in-charge who know how to get the most out of the platform. It is a potential gold mine.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Thanks, GTMO. Really great data and appreciate you taking the time to compile it all. It is very apparent that the Big East will be getting a significant bump for its next TV deal. Not only has that been alluded to by several reporters since UConn returned, but the data also supports that as well. Most importantly, Fox and the Big East have had a strong, mutually beneficial, relationship. Fox does an outstanding job promoting Big East content on other broadcasts, whether it is MLB, NFL, College Football, etc. Between the power conference-level matchups and quality, OOC games with the B1G (Gavitt Games) and the Big 12 (The Battle), and the ever-growing viewership and fan support, the Big East is undeniably a power conference in basketball. The addition of UConn will, too, provide mutual value for both the conference and for UConn long-term.

I think the most interesting component of our next TV deal will be the length. We signed a 12-year deal in 2013, which was very long, yet stable. I wonder if we will see a shorter deal (maybe 8 years) to provide for financial flexibility.

Sadly, it will likely also be one of Val's last big acts for the Big East. She is only signed through 2024 and might step down after that.

[gtmoBlue]

Correct me if necessary, but isn't the contract due in 2025? If so, Val will stick around. Plus, unless she's a lottery pick for the Carnival Cruise Lines
pro Deck Shuffleboard League, where's she goin'? Only things she hasn't done are Pres of Olympic Hoops and Pres of FIBA Women's Hoops...lol .

Here's a couple of links from 2019...My take on another McNamara and Jet 915 post. Also a link to an article about media rights with Fox...Fox Sports College Properties (FSCP)
I had forgotten about Conf and individual Media Rights deals in my synopsis... Technically they are in the "other Revenue " streams.
https://bluenotes2.com/2019/08/17/time- ... -contract/
https://www.bigeast.com/news/2020/2/19/ ... ement.aspx

[GoldenWarrior11]

Correct me if necessary, but isn't the contract due in 2025? If so, Val will stick around. Plus, unless she's a lottery pick for the Carnival Cruise Lines
pro Deck Shuffleboard League, where's she goin'? Only things she hasn't done are Pres of Olympic Hoops and Pres of FIBA Women's Hoops...lol .

Here's a couple of links from 2019...My take on another McNamara and Jet 915 post. Also a link to an article about media rights with Fox...Fox Sports College Properties (FSCP)
I had forgotten about Conf and individual Media Rights deals in my synopsis... Technically they are in the "other Revenue " streams.
https://bluenotes2.com/2019/08/17/time- ... -contract/
https://www.bigeast.com/news/2020/2/19/ ... ement.aspx

Yes, the contract runs through 2025 (after the 2024-2025 season) I believe. However, it is very unlikely we will go to the open market, given the relationship that the Big East has built with Fox over the past decade. I would guess that negotiations are already on-going, and will pick up over the next two years. I'd be shocked if a new agreement is not met before the 2024 season. There have been many reports of what the rumored new payouts would be (anywhere from $6-$8 million) from a few reporters, so I am guessing that someone within the Big East is floating that to protect themselves if they ever were to go to open market (again, I do not think they will).

Essentially, before Val's current contract ends, we will have a new TV deal (which she will have a direct hand in negotiating and securing). I think reading between the lines, Val was very specific about only taking a three-year extension. She could have named her length, given all of the what she has been able to accomplish and secure on behalf of the league. She can probably have her role for as long as she desires. By the time 2024 comes around, she will have been commissioner for 11 years. She "only" held the WNBA position for nine years, and hasn't really had any other role for as long as she has had for the Big East. I don't have any inside knowledge, but on the surface it does seem that there is a target date of an eventual succession plan.

[gtmoBlue]

Hmmm, you covered a lot of ground in that last post.

I'll just add this though. Recently, CBS has been more proactive in their involvement with college basketball, even
taking a piece of the B1G contract. They already have the Dance locked up for years. I wouldn't be surprised if
CBS/Turner Sports looks to get more involved during this next round of contracts. CBS lost SEC Football, Dec 2020, to ABC & ESPN
and will be looking to boost its' coffers for 2024 and beyond. ESPN & Fox were not interested in early negotiations with the Big-12.
They are waiting until the contract is due, more time and circumstances to size up the current status of the market in 2025.
Looks as though the SEC "locked up" the early negotiations this past winter.

I would not anticipate an "early" renewal of the BEast contract either - for both reasons...More involvement from CBS/Turner, and media players waiting
to see how the landscape looks 4 years from now. That's a good lineup of contracts (below) between now and 2025 with the Big East down the priority list.
In an earlier post I was adverse to a long-term deal - advocating for a 5 or 6 yr deal. However, with the SEC & ACC already in deals to 2034 & 36, and with
the B1G probably also entering into a longer term deal, I am having a change of heart. With the proper incentives ($9M/yr or more) taking the 10 year deal
isn't so bad.

Lubbock online:
ESPN and FOX, who have 13-year agreements with the Big 12 that run through 2025, aren't ready to talk about a new deal when the ones in place still have four years to go.
That was a message Big 12 presidents, chancellors and athletics directors heard on a Zoom video conference Monday with a media consulting group it enlisted months ago, Tech President Lawrence Schovanec said.
Schovanec, Texas President Jay Hartzell and West Virginia President E. Gordon Gee formed a three-man committee in the fall of 2020 to study "whether we should consider acting preemptively with regard to our TV contract," Schovanec said, "or just waiting and going into free agency when that contract is up in 2025."

Texas Tech President Lawrence Schovanec, right, visits with Red Raiders basketball coach Mark Adams during the Tech football spring game April 17 at Jones AT&T Stadium.
With assistance from the Big 12, they enlisted the consulting firm Bevilacqua Helfant Ventures (BHV).

"The general result is that, at this time, with so much uncertainty in the media marketplace as well as the landscape for collegiate athletics," Schovanec said, "our partners, ESPN and FOX, are not interested in acting preemptively with regard to our contract. They recognize the importance of our partnership, but there's just too much uncertainty, and they do have four years to go.

Starting in 2023, a number of major conferences and professional sports leagues will have their rights deals coming up for renegotiation and renewal.
The Big Ten's six-year contract with CBS, FOX and ESPN expires in 2023. The Pac-12 has a 12-year contract with ESPN and FOX that runs through 2024. The College Football Playoff's agreement with ESPN goes through the 2025 season (early 2026 bowl games)
The Athletic, in a story last June, noted that between now and 2024, deals also will come up for the NFL, Major League Baseball's package with ESPN, the NHL and UEFA Champions League.
In December, the Southeastern Conference agreed to a 10-year contract with ABC and ESPN to begin in 2024, taking away valuable football content that has belonged to CBS since 1996. The Atlantic Coast Conference's 20-year agreement with ESPN goes through 2036.

In recent years, the Big 12's annual revenue distribution to member schools has ranked third in terms of payout behind the SEC and the Big Ten, but ahead of the Pac-12 and the ACC.

The presentation on Monday came during two days of virtual Big 12 meetings. On Tuesday, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby told The Dallas Morning News the conference's annual distribution to member schools for this fiscal year will average $34.5 million — for the second year in a row a decrease related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Big 12 distribution announced in May 2019 averaged about $38.8 million per school, and the annual payout announced in May 2020 decreased to an average of $37.7 million per school after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, ending a 13-year streak of annual payout increases.

2021-2024
NFL
MLB (Pkg w ESPN)
NHL
UEFA Champions League

B1G - 2023
Pac-12 - 2024
Big-12 - 2025
Big East - 2025
SEC - 2034 (New 10 yr deal 2024-2034)
ACC - 2036 (Current 20 yr deal runs thru 2036)

[MUPanther]

CBS already had part of the Big Ten contract for hoops. They just renewed it.

I don't see CBS and Turner Sports to partner up on other deals.

[gtmoBlue]

Losing SEC Sports & Football is a Big Deal for CBS/Turner. CBS had SEC Football since 1996. This is a big hit for them.
They will become much more involved and aggressive for the 2024 and beyond timeframe. BE will be on the open market
and I expect vigorous bidding.

[Xudash]

Losing SEC Sports & Football is a Big Deal for CBS/Turner. CBS had SEC Football since 1996. This is a big hit for them.
They will become much more involved and aggressive for the 2024 and beyond timeframe. BE will be on the open market
and I expect vigorous bidding.

I've really enjoyed the conversation you guys are having about the Big East's media agreement and where we might be headed with it. At the very least, we would appear to have greater upside than greater downside at this time, especially given some of the data and information you've shared here.

My reaction / two cents, at this point:

1. I absolutely agree that CBS took a massive hit when it lost Saturday SEC football. It had become a tradition and Saturday staple. 25 years of it and then "poof." It has to be a big hole for them to fill.

2. I believe in loyalty where performance has been met or exceeded. IMHO, Fox has done a masterful job of producing our basketball games. I believe, to a fan, we were all both relieved and excited to learn of the dollars that came attached to our Fox media agreement. Hindsight is easy; whether we were a bargain or not, there was a certain amount of legitimate perceived risk at the time. I understand that business is business. I understand that effective negotiating is job one for any successful enterprise. I fully expect the Big East to carefully navigate the process. But it just seems that the Big East and Fox are meant to be at this point, and that strikes me as being a good thing.

It's all about the best mix of money, exposure (i.e. channel, time slots, et al) and production quality.

With all that, I guess we stay tuned to see what happens down the road.