OT- How concerned should we be about CoronaVirus impact?

[GumbyDamnit!]

Solid analogy BJack.

[GoldenWarrior11]

GW,
I "want" the same thing that you do: sports to return to normal. Looking at trendlines, number of deaths already, lack of wholesale testing, plus general logistics of the sports themselves, etc... i put "normal sports" on a different timeline than you.

If i have tickets to a 7pm game at Fenway, and at noon the National Weather Service gives a 90% chance of torrential rain and lightning in Boston, i'm going to be pissed, but i'll accept that the game is unlikely to be played.

If i then hear that the Yankees and Mets announce in mid-afternoon that they've postponed their games already, i'll put the likelihood of a Fenway rainout up to 95% or higher.

Then late afternoon if a sports radio guy starts advising people to go to the Sox game anyway, i'd instead still trust the official weather reports over the sports guy. By me deciding to believe the official weather report, that doesn't mean i hate baseball.

Of course, the Sox could still decide to play a 9 inning game in torrential rain and thunder and lightning... i mean, that's possible i guess. I'd think that's a really poor decision.

That's where i'm at right now.

I respect that. Everyone clearly has passionate feelings and opinions on the subject (and many others within this pandemic). Personal opinions aside, it is now abundantly clear that there is a immensely strong pursuit by both professional and college athletics to not only get sports back in operation this summer, but also to have the goal to get fans present (eventually), in some form, as well. States have begun re-opening for high school and youth sports already, and we are not yet in June.

The one clear takeaway, sports-wise, from this pandemic is that all sports leagues, and levels, are very reactionary and copycat in decision-making. It took Rudy Gobert to test positive to shut down the NBA (which immediately led to the NHL, MLB and College Basketball to shut down as well). When the UFC and WWE began pursuing holding live events without fans, and with rigorous testing, it encouraged MLB and the NBA to pursue doing the same. When the SEC began committing to having football this Fall, it not only began pushing other conferences to do the same, but it, essentially, forced California schools to separate from the state systems' decision. When the NBA and MLB began to open facilities, it triggered colleges and athletic programs to do the same as well. As soon as sports return (without fans), the next step clearly shows someone hosting an event with limited fans - and as soon as someone is successful with that, it will lead to many more sports events to be held with fans as well.

Now, anyone and everyone can criticize and be believe it to be a poor decision; however, it is very clear that it is the path we are on. As long as there are pioneers committed navigate the uncertain lands, we will continue to stretch beyond our boundaries.

[hortle]

GW,
I "want" the same thing that you do: sports to return to normal. Looking at trendlines, number of deaths already, lack of wholesale testing, plus general logistics of the sports themselves, etc... i put "normal sports" on a different timeline than you.

If i have tickets to a 7pm game at Fenway, and at noon the National Weather Service gives a 90% chance of torrential rain and lightning in Boston, i'm going to be pissed, but i'll accept that the game is unlikely to be played.

If i then hear that the Yankees and Mets announce in mid-afternoon that they've postponed their games already, i'll put the likelihood of a Fenway rainout up to 95% or higher.

Then late afternoon if a sports radio guy starts advising people to go to the Sox game anyway, i'd instead still trust the official weather reports over the sports guy. By me deciding to believe the official weather report, that doesn't mean i hate baseball.

Of course, the Sox could still decide to play a 9 inning game in torrential rain and thunder and lightning... i mean, that's possible i guess. I'd think that's a really poor decision.

That's where i'm at right now.

I respect that. Everyone clearly has passionate feelings and opinions on the subject (and many others within this pandemic). Personal opinions aside, it is now abundantly clear that there is a immensely strong pursuit by both professional and college athletics to not only get sports back in operation this summer, but also to have the goal to get fans present (eventually), in some form, as well. States have begun re-opening for high school and youth sports already, and we are not yet in June.

The one clear takeaway, sports-wise, from this pandemic is that all sports leagues, and levels, are very reactionary and copycat in decision-making. It took Rudy Gobert to test positive to shut down the NBA (which immediately led to the NHL, MLB and College Basketball to shut down as well). When the UFC and WWE began pursuing holding live events without fans, and with rigorous testing, it encouraged MLB and the NBA to pursue doing the same. When the SEC began committing to having football this Fall, it not only began pushing other conferences to do the same, but it, essentially, forced California schools to separate from the state systems' decision. When the NBA and MLB began to open facilities, it triggered colleges and athletic programs to do the same as well. As soon as sports return (without fans), the next step clearly shows someone hosting an event with limited fans - and as soon as someone is successful with that, it will lead to many more sports events to be held with fans as well.

Now, anyone and everyone can criticize and be believe it to be a poor decision; however, it is very clear that it is the path we are on. As long as there are pioneers committed navigate the uncertain lands, we will continue to stretch beyond our boundaries.

you can also make the argument that this is the wrong path, that it will lead to things getting worse than if a more conservative path had been taken, and that in the end, a "return to normalcy" will be delayed because of the eagerness to re-open. i have no issue with games in the fall but having fans seems like it should be a long ways off.

[stever20]

I do think we see sports with fans- but it's not going to be more than 25-50% for quite a while. Gene Smith, the Ohio St AD was saying he might see up to 45-50k in a stadium that seats 100k+.

Also, there's a pretty big difference between indoors and outdoors. I think the odds of seeing more than 20-25% indoors this year are pretty low.

[adoraz]

I do think we see sports with fans- but it's not going to be more than 25-50% for quite a while. Gene Smith, the Ohio St AD was saying he might see up to 45-50k in a stadium that seats 100k+.

Also, there's a pretty big difference between indoors and outdoors. I think the odds of seeing more than 20-25% indoors this year are pretty low.

This seems pretty likely. I wonder if teams will play more in pro stadiums. St. John's CA for instance seats less than 6K, but MSG seats close to 20K. If we're doing say 30% capacity, then MSG makes a lot more sense. The issue for St. John's at least is MSG charges a ton of money so we don't play there much. I believe we need at least 10K in attendance to break even. Obviously different circumstances now so I'm sure MSG would adjust that, but who knows. A lot is up in the air these days.

[gtmoBlue]

The State of Nebraska only has a 2-3 M population and thus far has a low Covid infection/death rate. Omaha has the most cases.

Confirmed 11,989 Recovered - Deaths 147
Location Confirmed Recovered Deaths
Douglas County 2,692 - 23

So the Jebbies at CU will probably social distance down to 17K at the Chico.

PS: I am loving that typical 'merican attitude - staunch individualism, the ol' "give me liberty o give me death", in your face stupidity that was
shown in Mizzou, Arkansas, and other locales over the holiday weekend.

Viewed on CNN: In reference to not wearing face masks - Especially fond of the drunk middle-aged broad who said (paraphrasing) 'can die of Covid today
or get hit by a car/ bus tomorrow.' Or the loudmouth kid (showing off in front of 2 girlfriends) 'if He doesn't wear a mask, I don't need to wear a mask. If
He isn't worried, then I'm not worried.' Referring to the President. Loving the typical "me 1st, to hell with the rest of you" attitude. #MAGA

[stever20]

I do think we see sports with fans- but it's not going to be more than 25-50% for quite a while. Gene Smith, the Ohio St AD was saying he might see up to 45-50k in a stadium that seats 100k+.

Also, there's a pretty big difference between indoors and outdoors. I think the odds of seeing more than 20-25% indoors this year are pretty low.

This seems pretty likely. I wonder if teams will play more in pro stadiums. St. John's CA for instance seats less than 6K, but MSG seats close to 20K. If we're doing say 30% capacity, then MSG makes a lot more sense. The issue for St. John's at least is MSG charges a ton of money so we don't play there much. I believe we need at least 10K in attendance to break even. Obviously different circumstances now so I'm sure MSG would adjust that, but who knows. A lot is up in the air these days.

1 thing you wonder with MSG is will they be able to change things over any where near as quickly between events? Will they be able to have enough personnel to do that? (I really don't know, will definitely be something to watch).

Of course at least for next year, the NBA/NHL won't be starting until December almost for sure- so OOC games may be easier to be at MSG. But then by the same token, for both leagues won't have all star break until probably in April. (of course, this goes for all the arenas with pro sports teams).

[NJRedman]

You guys know that just because numbers are going down now doesn't mean they wont go back up in the fall and winter right? We can start a season but playing a whole one isn't a foregone conclusion.

[Rtmac4192]

Not sure where the various Big East schools stand on confirmed plans for in person class in the fall, as that will most assuredly affect whether sports such as Men’s basketball are played. However, my daughter who will be a senior at X just got a definitive email confirming on campus classes starting a week early, no fall break or Labor Day, and wrapping up on campus by Thanksgiving, with online exams after Thanksgiving. Basically the “Notre Dame” plan. Hopefully a good sign since most of our schools are in the same small - medium private school mold. Any other Big East schools send anything out this definite yet?

[GoldenWarrior11]

Not sure where the various Big East schools stand on confirmed plans for in person class in the fall, as that will most assuredly affect whether sports such as Men’s basketball are played. However, my daughter who will be a senior at X just got a definitive email confirming on campus classes starting a week early, no fall break or Labor Day, and wrapping up on campus by Thanksgiving, with online exams after Thanksgiving. Basically the “Notre Dame” plan. Hopefully a good sign since most of our schools are in the same small - medium private school mold. Any other Big East schools send anything out this definite yet?

Notre Dame followed the Marquette model, which we announced before they did.