OT- How concerned should we be about CoronaVirus impact?

[GoldenWarrior11]

Again, waiting for a vaccine to be the end-all-be-all is a fool's pursuit. As previously stated, we had, on average, 60k deaths per year from the flu; less than half of the US gets flu vaccine shots annually. If we choose to wait not only until a vaccine is created but also for the mass population to choose to get one, we will all be dead and buried by the time that ever comes around.

The outlook of having sports, in some form, by the end of summer, is very promising - which should create significant optimism for college basketball season, again in some form, this winter. The present data is remarkably promising, especially for young people (the numbers for people under the age of 25 still is remarkably low). An overwhelming majority of the deaths from the virus are from individuals 55 years and older, and an overwhelming majority of those deaths are cases that had already had serious and life-threatening health issues. Does this derail or minimize the magnitude and/or significance of the virus? Absolutely not, but it does provide meaningful and hopeful perspective.

I predict MLB starts in July, in their respective cities, without fans to start. After a few weeks, perhaps into August, they will allow limited fans with social distancing guidelines. I would not be surprised to see the NBA conduct their playoffs only in a similar manner in late-June/early July, with July being more likely. NCAA Football and NFL will likely be start a little later; OOC games are likely to be scrapped, and the NFL probably will delay the start of training camps/preseason, which will eliminate either preseason games and/or early NFL games. The SEC has already said that it will, independently, look to host games in the Fall - with or without universal participation from conference membership. Many states (particularly in the South) will choose to make a full effort to get things going. In a month, after data is revealed about after the reopening of many Southern states, it will be incredibly telling.

The reality is that over 30 million people are now unemployed. Continuing with a general, wide-ranging, stay-at-home directives only adds to those figures, and - in this case - the professional athletes as well (no TV money to pay out significant salaries to players). Sports networks (ESPN) will not be able to continue charging fees without live content to offer. A nationally targeted quarantine (age/health) is much more likely long-term than a blanket universal one, and, as we can see, states are already pushing back the legality and ethical components for such a shut down. There will be a trickle-down effect once professional leagues/college programs commit to starting back up again. The biggest question is who that will be.

[Xudash]

GW11, nail hit squarely on the head with this:

A nationally targeted quarantine (age/health) is much more likely long-term than a blanket universal one

At my age, IMHO, it's up to me to take care of myself and to be fully responsible for my actions and health. That means quarantine until everything aligns in such a way as to make it "safe" for me to step outside. Importantly, that doesn't mean that I have to hold everyone else up.

Yes, we have to and we are taking COVID-19 very seriously, but we also have to be practical.

[Savannah Jay]

Again, waiting for a vaccine to be the end-all-be-all is a fool's pursuit. As previously stated, we had, on average, 60k deaths per year from the flu; less than half of the US gets flu vaccine shots annually. If we choose to wait not only until a vaccine is created but also for the mass population to choose to get one, we will all be dead and buried by the time that ever comes around.

The outlook of having sports, in some form, by the end of summer, is very promising - which should create significant optimism for college basketball season, again in some form, this winter. The present data is remarkably promising, especially for young people (the numbers for people under the age of 25 still is remarkably low). An overwhelming majority of the deaths from the virus are from individuals 55 years and older, and an overwhelming majority of those deaths are cases that had already had serious and life-threatening health issues. Does this derail or minimize the magnitude and/or significance of the virus? Absolutely not, but it does provide meaningful and hopeful perspective.

I predict MLB starts in July, in their respective cities, without fans to start. After a few weeks, perhaps into August, they will allow limited fans with social distancing guidelines. I would not be surprised to see the NBA conduct their playoffs only in a similar manner in late-June/early July, with July being more likely. NCAA Football and NFL will likely be start a little later; OOC games are likely to be scrapped, and the NFL probably will delay the start of training camps/preseason, which will eliminate either preseason games and/or early NFL games. The SEC has already said that it will, independently, look to host games in the Fall - with or without universal participation from conference membership. Many states (particularly in the South) will choose to make a full effort to get things going. In a month, after data is revealed about after the reopening of many Southern states, it will be incredibly telling.

The reality is that over 30 million people are now unemployed. Continuing with a general, wide-ranging, stay-at-home directives only adds to those figures, and - in this case - the professional athletes as well (no TV money to pay out significant salaries to players). Sports networks (ESPN) will not be able to continue charging fees without live content to offer. A nationally targeted quarantine (age/health) is much more likely long-term than a blanket universal one, and, as we can see, states are already pushing back the legality and ethical components for such a shut down. There will be a trickle-down effect once professional leagues/college programs commit to starting back up again. The biggest question is who that will be.

Don't disagree with this but would only add that the typical flu season may kill 60k (or more) but most of those die during flu "season" (October through March, with most of the deaths in Dec-Mar). This has killed 60,000 in a little over a month.

I agree that we have to find a new, workable normal (whatever that means). I saw the beginning of Bryant Gumbel's Real Sports the other night (and will try to watch the rest this weekend). They had an infectious disease expert on there who went on (an on) about how professional sports continued in San Jose even after San Francisco declared the state of emergency (which I think they were the first to do so, in late February). The "expert" droned on about how professional sports is the exact opposite of the "ideal" when talking about social distancing. What struck me about that was...so, how come no outbreak in San Jose? The talked about 3 Shark games and an Earthquake game after the San Fran lockdown...that was now 7 or 8 weeks ago. Where are all the COVID illnesses borne of this "travesty?" CA has a remarkably low number of cases and deaths, given it's population. If they do have an outbreak, i think we're well past the point where you could blame it on the hockey or soccer games.

[MUPanther]

Too much money on the line. We'll get going in fall. I think we will regreat canceling so much summer actives in April, without knowing the landscape.

[Xudash]

Too much money on the line. We'll get going in fall. I think we will regreat canceling so much summer actives in April, without knowing the landscape.

I agree.

The only salvation when it comes to the matter of regret about canceling current activities is that it will never be clear as to whether it was necessary to clamp down to this degree for this long, or not - most likely necessary, but 20/20 hindsight isn’t crystal clear in this case.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Disclaimer: This very lengthy article is well worth a read, but you will not find any good news in it, nor in the two links which follow it.

As Students Put Off College, Anxious Universities Tap Wait Lists - Anemona Hartocollis and Dan Levin, The New York Times - May 1, 2020

Uncertain that campuses will reopen, students are reluctant to commit for the fall. For schools, enrollment drops and lost revenue could be devastating.

As they absorb signs of declining enrollment, colleges are preparing for more revenue losses and spending cuts. Like many schools, the University of California, San Diego has already paused three construction projects and imposed a partial hiring freeze. “We’ve promised no layoffs until June 30,” said the chancellor. But the real impact of the virus could be felt at the end of September, when the university’s fall term begins and students must put down tuition money, rather than just deposits. “That’s when the rubber will meet the road,” he said.

Coronavirus Tracker - World (All Countries) - Worldometer - updated continuously

Coronavirus Tracker - USA (All 50 States) - Worldometer - updated continuously

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Note that the two Worldometer data bases linked above are sortable. Just click on any column heading and the same numbers will be displayed, but ranked in order of the column heading you have selected. Needless to say, there are some surprises when you look at the numbers in detail. While the specific focus of this thread is rightfully the effects of coronavirus on Big East basketball, the presidents of all colleges in the country are directing their attention to a far more pressing issue: the survival of their institutions.

Can Colleges Survive Coronavirus? The Math Is Not Pretty - Elissa Nadworny, NPR - April 20, 2020

Angry Undergrads Are Suing Colleges for Billions in Refunds - Bob Van Voris and Janet Lorin, Bloomberg – May 1, 2020

College students, kicked off campus by the coronavirus, have a new extracurricular activity: litigation. U.S. undergraduates have sued more than 50 schools, demanding partial tuition, room-and-board and fee refunds after they shut down.

The proliferating breach-of-contract suits, many of them filed over the last week, target some of the biggest names in higher education: state systems including the University of California and Arizona State, as well as private institutions such as Columbia, Cornell and New York University.

The students’ lawyers, advertising on sites such as Collegerefund2020.com, are seeking class-action status on behalf of hundreds of thousands of students. While legal experts say the suits face high hurdles, they could potentially involve billions of dollars in claims.

My apologies for all of the depressing news in these two posts, but there is some relevance in them to college basketball. I won’t be making any predictions at this point, but in my mind, there is a reasonable chance that some private colleges (presently playing Division I basketball) could go bust by this autumn, and/or some that some private colleges (presently playing Division I basketball) could drop down to Division II or Division III basketball, leaving vacancies in their present conferences. State-supported schools will be safe, as no state governor is going to let a state school go bust on his/her watch. That concludes my contributions to this thread until August, when I may post an update. Stay safe, and best of health to all.

[ArmyVet]

If you were dead set on an Ivy League school, this would be the year to apply. Sounds like plenty of applicants who might otherwise not get in will now be accepted. The trickle down effect will have a major impact.

[ArmyVet]

How can a college administrator support having athletes competing if students aren't on campus?

Multiple conference commissioners told Stadium that student-athletes would not be prevented from returning to campus to play football this season if classes are limited to online-only instruction.

This is a dramatic shift from just a few weeks ago, when many college administrators indicated the general student body would need to return to on-campus classes in order for student-athletes to participate in college football. Those decisions – whether to play if the campus is closed to general students but open to student-athletes – ultimately will be made by the individual school presidents or chancellors.

“Going to class in an online sense is satisfactory,” Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby said. “There’s room for that to happen. School has to be in session, student-athletes have to be going to class.”

https://watchstadium.com/will-college-f ... 5-07-2020/

[Xudash]

How can a college administrator support having athletes competing if students aren't on campus?

Multiple conference commissioners told Stadium that student-athletes would not be prevented from returning to campus to play football this season if classes are limited to online-only instruction.

This is a dramatic shift from just a few weeks ago, when many college administrators indicated the general student body would need to return to on-campus classes in order for student-athletes to participate in college football. Those decisions – whether to play if the campus is closed to general students but open to student-athletes – ultimately will be made by the individual school presidents or chancellors.

“Going to class in an online sense is satisfactory,” Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby said. “There’s room for that to happen. School has to be in session, student-athletes have to be going to class.”

https://watchstadium.com/will-college-f ... 5-07-2020/

I'm not being snide with you AV, but I believe the answer to your question probably has something to do with money and survival.

As has been the case with COVID-19 all along, we'll continue to learn more and more with each passing day. 90-days from now - yes, an arbitrary amount of time at this point - we'll be a few weeks away from the big-bash kick-off weekend for college football. How much can we learn by then in order to squeeze out more uncertainty that comes with this virus: where will we be with more and better data to track its true impact, with medicines, et al?