Fallout Options

[BillikensWin]

Well, somebody's going to get left out. What happens then?

If SLU gets bypassed, there's no way that they could stay in the A-10. Creighton would be unaffected. Dayton could probably stay in the A-10.

Thoughts on "what happens next"?

[thefish7]

I think the MVC would be happy to add SLU if SLU got left out, particularly if Creighton did go.

[vu97]

Why can't SLU stay in the A10? I think the remaining schools in the A10 will be better than MVC without Creighton.

[pki1998]

There are too many variables out there to come up with realistic expectations. That being said I will offer my not so humble opinion for some of the potential candidates. For the purposes of this analysis I will assume the following

1) Butler and Xavier will accept invitations to the C7 League
2) Notre Dame will not join the C7, if for no other reasons they can’t afford to lose the ACC bowl tie ins.
3) UConn, Temple, Cincinnati, Memphis, and UMass will not be considered because they have football programs. Even though personally I think the C7 should take a chance and add a couple of these schools.
4) The Big East Football Schools will not consider a hybrid conference of football and non-football schools.

There are four teams which are relatively easy to guess.

Creighton –The rest of the Missouri Valley Conference should be unaffected by the C7. I know there are rumors about Evansville leaving, but I don’t think anyone at Creighton would be overly concerned about that if it happens. As such, Creighton will simply choose to stay in the MVC if they don’t get an invite to the C7.

Gonzaga – Much like Creighton if the Zag’s don’t get an invite to join the C7, they will stay in their current league.

BYU & St. Mary’s – There’s a possibility that Gonzaga could go to the C7 without a West Coast Travel Partner. Losing the Zag’s would be a big hit to the WCC, but it will not cause a team to leave. Mostly because the schools not named BYU will not have any better options, and any BYU move will be predicated on football not basketaball.

After these three it becomes a lot more difficult to predict.

St. Louis – One option would be available in any scenario. St Louis could also consider joining back up with the Horizon league. That would be a bitter pill to swallow, since most of their old conference mates have moved on to better conferences.

SCENARIO 1 - If the C7, adds Butler, Dayton and Xavier. I have no doubt that St. Louis will be looking to join the Missouri Valley. If the Evansville rumors are true, then I am sure that the Valley would welcome St. Louis with open arms. If the MVC keeps Creighton and Evansville they might just stay at their current roster of ten teams, or maybe they look at adding Northern Kentucky & St Louis to go to 12 schools. In this case I think St. Louis finds a way to get to the MVC.

SCENARIO 2 –The C7 adds Butler, Creighton and Xavier. In this case St Louis has some serious thinking to do. I know St. Louis has felt like they were on a remote island far away from the rest of the league ever since they joined the A-10. Losing Butler won’t change their mind much because this is Butlers first year, but losing Xavier might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. The Valley would clearly accept St. Louis to replace Creighton, but at this point St. Louis would be the only Catholic School in the league so there might be some hesitation in moving there. In this case my guess is that St. Louis stays in the Atlantic 10, unless Dayton and St. Louis jointly market themselves to the Valley or Horizon.

SCENARIO 3 – The C7 adds Butler, Creighton, Dayton, VCU (or Richmond) Xavier. While at the same time the Big East Football Schools take UMass. St Louis is stuck in a league that has lost Butler, Dayton, UMass, UNC Charlotte, Temple, VCU and Xavier. The good news is St Louis is now one of the best teams in the A-10 the bad news is the other top three are, Rhode Island, St Joseph’s and Richmond (or VCU if Richmond goes to the C7 conference).. Their closest conference mate is 600 miles away, and the next closest is 800 miles away. This clearly isn’t sustainable and at this point St. Louis either goes to the MVC or back to the Horizon League.

Dayton- If Dayton doesn’t get an invite they are probably looking at three choices. 1) Stay in A-10, 2) join Missouri Valley, and 3) Rejoin the Horizon League.

SCENARIO A – The C7 adds Butler, Creighton and Xavier. Dayton should try to convince St. Louis to stick with them in the A-10, to accomplish this they need to convince the A-10 to add some more Midwest schools to replace Butler, Xavier and possibly St. Louis. Detroit, Loyola and Northern Kentucky would be good candidates. Northern Kentucky is a sleeping Giant, just recently making the move up to D1 and has a really nice brand new arena on campus, which would be one of the top 3 gyms in the A-10. Loyola and Detroit are in large markets. With Xavier (and possibly St. Louis) being out of the league, Dayton won’t feel at home without some more Jesuit schools beating them up. Dayton probably stays in the A-10 if this plays out.

SCENARIO B – The C7 adds Butler, St. Louis and Xavier. This is pretty much the same as scenario A except we now know that St. Louis isn’t in the league. It’s still in Dayton’s best interest to stay in the A-10

SCENARIO C – The C7 adds Butler, Creighton, St. Louis, VCU (or Richmond) and Xavier (plus one or more other teams). While at the same time the Big East Football Schools take UMass. This is probably the worst case scenario. If UMASS, Richmond, Rhode Island, St. Josephs, and VCU are in the league, I think the A-10 is still a strong conference but you lose two of those teams (especially VCU) and the Atlantic Ten is looking pretty rough. At this point Dayton would have to give serious consideration to going back to the Horizon League (hopefully getting an invitation for Northern Kentucky as well).

VCU & Richmond – As long as Rhode Island, and St. Josephs are in the conference they are still better off than they were in the Colonial, so they will stay in a depleted A-10.

[Edrick]

UMass will be joining the Big East football half, supposedly with Tulsa.

[yorost]

2) Notre Dame will not join the C7, if for no other reasons they can’t afford to lose the ACC bowl tie ins.

I don't see why that would matter, they already get preferential treatment and bowls want them. It's not like the ACC has a full slate of premier bowls.

Notre Dame won't join the BE7 because the ACC will be stronger in just about every facet. The advantages offered to Notre Dame by the BE7 are true football independence and better geographic fit. After that, I can't think of anything. I'm sure Notre Dame will miss some of these schools, but with so much OldBE in the ACC they will still have those schools, plus a stronger set of new possibilities compared to the BE7's newcomers.

I do think a year ago it was possible Notre Dame would be in this mix helping to create a new conference. They may have even been involved at that time. If Notre Dame couldn't find a power conference willing to let them be an associate member we would have been a solid option for them.

I would love to see Notre Dame prove me wrong and join us, though.

3) UConn, Temple, Cincinnati, Memphis, and UMass will not be considered because they have football programs. Even though personally I think the C7 should take a chance and add a couple of these schools.

There's no chance to it. Letting them place football in a separate conference is just going to lead to them bolting down the road. That will hurt the image of the new conference and leave it scrambling. Better to just avoid it and get the pieces you think you can hold together. You want everyone to be somewhere they feel comfortable. Look at the WCHA and CCHA, strong hockey conferences. It lost some of it's best programs just because the B1G schools wanted to be together. I can't blame them, either, I've been waiting for this for years. Having all your sports in one nice package with other schools is ideal for fans and the schools.

Which reminds me, I wonder what happens to lacrosse. The Big East barely got this going, do any of the potential incoming schools have lacrosse ready to join the 5 lacrosse schools of the BE7? Are they going to have to float somewhere else?

[TheDon]

Well, somebody's going to get left out. What happens then?

If SLU gets bypassed, there's no way that they could stay in the A-10. Creighton would be unaffected. Dayton could probably stay in the A-10.

Thoughts on "what happens next"?

Great discussion here. I don't think much happens right away other than the MVC needing to replace Creighton or the A10 trying to find a suitable replacement for XU.

[Bluejay]

2) Notre Dame will not join the C7, if for no other reasons they can’t afford to lose the ACC bowl tie ins.

I don't see why that would matter, they already get preferential treatment and bowls want them. It's not like the ACC has a full slate of premier bowls.

It used to not matter, but it does now.

With all the new conference tie-ins in the new system, ACC membership is essential to Notre Dame. Granted, they could head to the Big 10 or Big 12 if they wanted, but I don't see them not having some sort of relationship with one of the big 5 simply for the bowl issue.

The days of just going to any bowl are no more.

[yorost]

I suppose that makes sense. Look at Hawaii, though, they even have an individual guaranteed bowl contract if they are eligible. Notre Dame could work something similar out with a strong set of non-BCS bowls, I'm sure. Doesn't matter, anyways, it's just another reason Notre Dame wouldn't choose us over the ACC.

[BillikensWin]

Why can't SLU stay in the A10? I think the remaining schools in the A10 will be better than MVC without Creighton.

Closest school is Duquense, and the conference would not be worth the travel.