WHY NOT 12 AND GET FOX DONE NOW?

[Moliva]

Ok, thread title is a play on the other one with a pretty ridiculous proposal, which includes a suggestion of Duquesne.

If there is interest in 12 teams, why not go straight to 12 teams? Why 9 or 10 teams now and add more later?

It would seem that the C7 would want to get their arm wrestling over which team gets included all at once. Or does the C7 just want to leave it's A10 'Farm System' in limbo for a longer period of time?

I would also think all the prospective schools would all want to get this over with.

Is it just over these measly Exit Fees? A last minute Hail Mary for Notre Dame?

[whiteandblue77]

A last minute Hail Mary for Notre Dame?

Bingo.

[Moliva]

So how long does Notre Dame get to decide?

Having them join for a single year isn't a serious consideration, is it?

[BillEsq]

So how long does Notre Dame get to decide?

Having them join for a single year isn't a serious consideration, is it?

As much as id love to have ND its not going to happen ND is just posturing to get out early. Remember they have the same deal that the C7 has. So if the C7 can leave early why not ND. ND just has to play dumb and just wait for the C7 BE divorce to occur make hints they might go to the C7 as the "official BE" and the BEFBS will be forced to make a deal with them. Worst case scenario they are in the c7 for a year best case they are in the ACC next year. They win either way.

Odds are its 12 no matter what. The only reason for 10 is to save money on exit fees. That might make sense but you loose out on rev. take a team like SLU if you don't take them you loose any credits that they earn next year. Last year SLU earned two units and are returning the same team this year and the next. Lets say you take STL in '14 and not '13 and they win two games next year. That is a total of 12 units the league would be giving up over 6 years well over 2 million dollars (or their total exit fee, just to save a million. So it doesn't make much sense. You can change the team or the numbers but Slu makes the best argument as Dayton wasn't in the NCAA last year so you have less to balance on. (and yes i'd rather have SLU in but the math still says 12 teams makes more money then penny pinching the exit fees for a year).

[Moliva]

If it's over Exit fees, we're talking about $2M Total. If any of these schools don't have an extra million to get out of th A10 early, are they a serious player? I just can't believe this is a serious roadblock.

[BillEsq]

If it's over Exit fees, we're talking about $2M Total. If any of these schools don't have an extra million to get out of th A10 early, are they a serious player? I just can't believe this is a serious roadblock.

I totally agree but from what was in those articles that was the reason given save paying the A-Ten 1 million over 2 million. I agree it makes no sense. Save 2 million dollars to have to put all your non revs in other conferences for a year. Hell might cost the league 2 million to pay all the associate membership costs for these teams. Not to mention you miss out on any rev that Fox was going to pay you for 12 teams. I could go on and on but my opinions against the 10 over 12 is well known. I don't think it makes any sense to go to 1o teams for any period of time. I swear this is just ESPN and blogger hack journalism.

[buckswope]

Trying to view this from the perspective of a C7 lawyer tasked with managing this transition with all the moving parts...it's all about negotiating leverage - specifically making sure no individual institutions or factions hijack the process and hold everyone hostage in exchange for last minute concessions.

Step 1: finalize the divorce with the football schools
Step 2: get the first 2 new invitees (i.e. Butler, Xavier) locked down
Step 3: officially sign with FOX Sports, who will launch their own PR push promoting their new network

By this point, the conference will have TV contract and enough teams to play a 16-game season. The perception is that they don't need to add anymore teams (surely the FOX contract will have terms for 9, 10, and 12 team contingencies). The newly formed conference is in a strong position to poach additional teams.

While the exit fees and NCAA units are part of the equation, no program is going to let a $2M exit fee or a few mil more in forfeited NCAA units (Xavier has by far the most to lose, and they're more than willing to let it go) hinder their entry into the new Big East. The sooner you get into the new conference, the sooner the FOX money comes rolling in, and the sooner you start earning NCAA units that you'll be able to keep.

[Moliva]

Re: leverage. So is the goal to have 2-3 'second class citizens' later?

Anybody that wants to join the league now will still want to join in a year.

[buckswope]

I have no idea what the 'end goal' is...the speculation is that FOX is ultimately going to want the additional inventory of games that comes with more conference members. I do believe that some of the presidents/ADs would rather keep it at 9. In the end you would think that the TV network that is providing the financial backbone for this maneuver will prevail.

My point is that whether the end goal is 12 teams by 2013-14 or 2014-15, that its wise to pick off the first 2 schools (schools that all C7 presidents can agree on), get the agreement with FOX officially signed, get a commissioner and a league office in place, then focus on filling out the additional 3 (?) spot(s).

Obviously any school that would join now would still join in a year. The C7 holds the leverage precisely because they haven't announced that they're going to expand to 12 and are showing the poker face that they're content with 9. If they announced that they were adding 5 at once, you run the risk of schools like SLU and Dayton forming an alliance to ensure neither one gets left out.

[UDGutter2]

How do you keep someone in suspense?





I'll tell you next week.